2015 College Football MAC Team Season Wins Analysis
Looking at the pictures for each conference that I'm posting, the "Raw Record Projection" is the straight up wins and losses I project after running every game of the season through my usual line-making spreadsheet. The "ML (Money Line) Converted Projected Wins for Next Season" is derived from taking my projected spread for each game and converting that via the standard chart that converts spreads into percent chance of winning, and then summing those. So if, for example, a team is projected to have a higher raw W/L record than the ML projected wins, it means typically that they are favored to win many close games. The converse would then also be true. I'd start by using the ML projected wins as a base number, and then look at the raw W/L record as the optimistic or pessimistic potential range of wins and losses, depending on how it varies from the ML projection. After that, if a play looks profitable, it's a matter of looking at each individual game of the schedule to see if there is a safe minimum or maximum number of wins or losses that can be relied on to aid any wager placed.
All games against D 1-AA opponents are counted as a 100% chance of winning, for better or worse, as are any games against FBS newcomer Charlotte.
Akron
This is the year that Akron's roster is supposed to be peaking. They will be aided by some key transfers from other schools. As such, Akron is the only school in the MAC where I did a "manual override" to boost some of the projections, in a conservative manner. Even still, Akron projects to be a poor team this year because their offense, especially their passing game, was terrible last year. They've got a 4 star Pitt transfer and a highly touted freshman pressing for the starting job, so whoever Akron ends up with behind center it should be an improvement over last year, and that regression is factored into my projections. There's nothing but upside to Akron's passing game, but they have to prove it on the field.
Akron's defense rates to be solid again, and will challenge for the spot as the MAC's best this year.
Current lines for season wins: Bovada 7 (-120 O, -120 U) 5Dimes 7.5 (+160 O, -210 U)
My projections have Akron with 8 single digit losses this year, with half of those by less than one score. Assuming that Akron will improve more than the typical team this year, and more than accounted for in my projections, Akron can easily reach 5-6 wins this year. Giving Akron a win for every game where they are less than a 7 point dog puts them at 6 wins. To get to 7 they'll have to either beat CMU at home, Miami-OH on the road, Ohio at home, or UL-Lafayette on the road. Doable? Sure. But am I really willing to start moving the majority of projected losses into the win column just to push a season win total of 7? No, I'm not. When I watched Akron play last year the only thing I remember is Terry Bowden making terrible coaching and clock decisions, lol. The bulk of the also-rans in the MAC are also projected to improve this season. If Akron somehow manages to take a much bigger slice of the improvement pie this season than I project than I guess I'll have learned my lesson, but I'm going to bet that Akron doesn't double their win total from last year.
1/2 UNIT PLAY: AKRON UNDER 7 WINS (-120 BOVADA)
Ball State
Ball improved in the second half of the season last year, but how well that translates to an overall improved season in 2015 hinges on the overall QB play they end up getting. Last year because of poor play and injuries they divided time between two QBs who both return this year.
Current lines for season wins: Bovada 7 (+110 O, -150 U) 5Dimes 7 (+120 O, -160 U)
You're telling me that Ball State would have to win 8 games for the Under to lose? Yes, it's -150 juice, but assuming Ball wins the games they're supposed to, who else will they have to beat to even get to 7 wins? CMU at home (I don't think so), Bowling Green at home (I can easily concede this one), Toledo at home (I don't think so), Ohio on the road (I don't think so), WMU on the road (I don't think so), NIU on the road (I don't think so), NW and TA&M on the road (you know the drill). Giving them BGSU puts them at 5 wins. So they'd have to steal 2 "I don't think so's" just to push the bet, and 3 for the bet to lose. Ball has a tough schedule, I'd bet on that.
1/2 UNIT PLAY: BALL UNDER 7 WINS (-150 BOVADA)
Bowling Green State University
BGSU's uptempo offense last year mostly just ended up giving the opponent more opportunities to score. Dino Baber in his second year as head coach now will probably have improvement on that side of the ball. They return 10 starters on offense, including a full offensive line. The defense only returns 5 starters, and will continue to be a liability. After an opening month that will probably see them winless, they'll have to flip the script and sweep October to have a chance at Bowl eligibility. My projections lean Under here, and with the +juice that's definitely the wager I'd make if I were to play one.
Current lines for season wins: Bovada 5.5 (-175 O, +135 U) 5Dimes 5 (-260 O, +180 U)
Buffalo
The Lance Leipold era in FBS begins in Buffalo in 2015. That alone adds interest to each game Buffalo plays this year. Buffalo's passing game with Joe Licata had it's moments last year, primarily at home. The defense sadly, was near the worst in the MAC, and even managed to get steamrolled by EMU's near-worst-offense-in-the-FBS squad last year. Defense is Leipold's calling card, so the question is how many years will it take before he gets his system and players in place? One can't expect too much this year, anyway. Looking at my projections Buffalo has a chance to surprise and reach Bowl eligibility if things go well...but also struggle with just a few wins tops if things don't. It's a pass, for me.
Current lines for season wins: Bovada 5 (+150 O, -200 U) 5Dimes 5.5 (+200 O, -280 U)
Central Michigan University
Is everyone really so afraid of a head coaching change here? Yes, it's John Bonamego's first stint as a head coach. If CMU can perform at near the same level as last year, ie the coach doesn't screw things up too badly, CMU has fantastic value on the Over here. They've lost some players, but not dramatically so, only slightly worse than average. They get their starting QB, punter and kicker back (even if they don't have world beaters in those special teams positions).
But the QB, Cooper Rush? He put up some solid numbers last year, and I rated CMU's pass offense 2nd best in the MAC last year, just barely edging out Toledo for that position. The difference between CMU and best passing game in the MAC WMU, though, is muuuuuch greater than the gap CMU had between 5 other MAC teams below them.
And did I rate CMU to have the best defense in the MAC last year? Why yes, yes I did. On run defense only one team in the MAC was able to get better than their usual YPC average versus CMU, Miami-OH, and that was by only .1 of a yard. Against all of the MAC teams they faced they held them on average to 1.2 yards below their usual ypc average. They were susceptible to the better passing teams they faced, though.
Monmouth and EMU at home are 2 wins in the bag. Buffalo at home 3/4 in the bag. The question of whether CMU brings home the Over, then, depends on how improved Akron and Kent are this year, which they both face on the road. I project CMU to win those games, but...hmmm. I also like CMU to beat NIU at home in a squeaker and Ball on the road. So yeah, 7 wins, it could happen. 4 wins? It could also happen, depending on how things shake out in the unpredictable MAC. As tempting as that Over 4 wins looks, especially given my projection, the juice is scaring me off it right now. Let's call it an extremely heavy lean for now.
Current lines for season wins: Bovada 4 (-150 O, +110 U) 5Dimes 4 (-150 O, +110 U)
Eastern Michigan University
EMU redshirted and waited last year. They should improve some this year. That being said, they could still be shut out in MAC play. I have them just edging Army at home as their lone win. At home early against Ball State and later in the year against UMASS are their best opportunities for other wins. Pass.
Current lines for season wins: Bovada 1.5 (-150 O, +110 U) 5Dimes 4 (-180 O, +140 U)
Kent State
After what should be a rough first month of an out of conference schedule (with a win versus Delaware State slid in there), the only near certainty I'm seeing for Kent is a loss at Toledo in week 6. But with Toledo potentially due for a little backsliding...There are a lot of winnable and losable games on the schedule for Kent in MAC play this year, which is true for all these middle of the road MAC teams, as I've been saying. 6 wins? Possibly. 3 wins? Possibly. Pass.
Current lines for season wins: Bovada 4.5 (-175 O, +135 U) 5Dimes 4 (-165 O, +125 U)
UMASS
Dangerous pass offense, derelict everything else. I project UMASS to be in 8 games this season decided by less than one score, making a guess at wins pretty random here. If anything, lean Under because of the raw W/L projection and the + juice.
Current lines for season wins: 5Dimes 4.5 (-185 O, +145 U)
Miami of Ohio
Miami is one of four MAC schools with a head coach entering his 2nd year at the program. They rebounded decently last year after suffering their worst statistical season in a decade in 2013. While my numbers show value on the Over 4 games for them this year, my enthusiasm is tempered by the fact that most of the teams in the MAC are rated to improve this year more than Miami. With Presbyterian and EMU at home, that's halfway to those 4 games, though. Buffalo and Akron at home could get them the push, but both of those teams are wildcards this year. So are UMass and Kent to some degree, the two teams I have M-OH beating on the road in the raw projections. But look at the fact that M-OH only lost by more than 10 points to one team in the MAC last year, WMU. Getting +juice on the wager seals the deal for me, as I think the worst case scenario is M-OH wins their last 4 games of the year to push the bet, lol.
1/2 UNIT PLAY: M-OH OVER 4 WINS
Current lines for season wins: 5Dimes 4 (+150 O, -180 U)
Northern Illinois
No team in the FBS saw their pass defense improve more over the 2nd half of the season than NIU last year. They went from being a fade team to a profitable one in their final few games against the MAC. I factor in directional trends in offensive and defense units in the 2nd half of the season when setting lines, but I've stripped that away for the end of season ratings I'm using here. So in spite of improving on defense as the year progressed, NIU still finished up with the 94th ranked defense last year, a solid step below 5 other MAC teams last year. Offense is clearly the strength of the team, but there's a question of where the big play potential is going to come from with this year's squad. Drew Hare is a decent quarterback, but still a bit better running the ball than passing it. Their offensive line is rebuilding outside of a couple of good starters as well (including All-MAC center Andrew Ness). NIU rates to be more consistent out of the gate this year, but can they still fend off the top tier MAC teams while continuing to win against the improving middle of the MAC teams? Assuming losses to OSU and BC (though with BC in a rebuilding year there's an outside chance for NIU to pull the upset), NIU only has to lose 2 other games for the Under to win. A home game against WMU is a near toss up. A road game against Toledo will also be a challenge. CMU could still be a tough out this year, which they get on the road. The toughest part of NIU's schedule is at the end of the season. Drew Hare stayed healthy last year, but there seems to be a decent chance with as much running as he does in the offense (2nd in rushes only behind now departed TB Cameron Stingly last year) that he could get banged up at some point in the season. That's not good when the games you really need to win are in the final month of games. NIU doesn't have much experience behind him at QB, either. Looking at the full picture it seems to me that best case scenario NIU gets to 8 wins, worst case they could fall out of Bowl eligibility.
1/2 UNIT PLAY: NIU Under 8.5 WINS
Current lines for season wins: 5Dimes 8.5 (-145 O, +105 U)
Ohio
If you bet on Ohio at all last year, you know how frustrating of an experience that could be. They seemed to squander opportunities like nobody else, were awful on the road, and the 2 man carousel of QBs they started never found it's rhythm as it lurched up and down to the sound of old-timey pipe organ music. Derrius Vick looked better with the eyeballs and much better on the stat line, so hears to hoping that he's the man come fall ball.
In spite of showing some value on the Over here, I don't see reason enough to take the bait. Ohio is only superior versus the MAC in one match up -- run defense, which is a great thing to be good at, but in and of itself won't win you games. I expect Ohio to be a scrappy out, but with too many question marks on offense to back with a season play, especially with the very stiff juice attached.
Current lines for season wins: 5Dimes 5 (-180 O, +140 U)
Toledo
Toledo had decent QB play out of both Woodside and Ely last year, but they both went down with injuries and were still recovering in the spring, leaving a question mark as to the health and stability of the position come fall. But oh, those running backs. Stacked. The offensive line this year will be starting from scratch though, which is never good for a team with gaudy running stats. Toledo returns all the skill positions, but skill doesn't get a chance to execute if the line doesn't do it's job, so...
Toledo returns the bulk of their defense, a squad that was above average against the run but below average versus the pass MAC-wise.
Looking at their 2015 schedule you see that Toledo has the potential to go undefeated in MAC play. But if the line doesn't gel and the QBs go down again they could go winless in their final 4 games. So while the raw projection puts them at 10-2, the ML converted projection is 7.9. With the number set at 7 and -170 juice, I'm going to pass.
Current lines for season wins: 5Dimes 7 (-170 O, +130 U)
Western Michigan
WMU returns a higher % of their offensive yards than any team in the MAC this year (96%), with a near average return of defensive playmakers. It might have come against a pretty lousy line up of pass defenses (barring VT and CMU), but WMU had an incredibly good pass offense last year (I rank them 13th best). Beyond that they were FBS below average at everything else, but still better than most of their MAC-mates, which is why they found themselves in the MAC championship against NIU, a game they lost in the 2nd half.
WMU could overtake Toledo as the best offense in the MAC this year, so why the market pessimism on WMU's win total this year? -300 on the Under on the surface of it looks crazy. You'd have to assume that WMU has a tough schedule, and you'd be right. They rate to lose all 3 of their non-conference FBS games (though an upset win at Georgia Southern rates as a 38% possibility right now). Michigan State and Ohio State? Fuggedaboutit. Murray State, EMU (road) & Ball State and BGSU at home look project as double digit wins. Even if NIU runs the table in the MAC up until the final two weeks of the season, they'd have to beat both NIU and Toledo on the road for the Over 8 to be a winner. Raw projections have them narrowly winning both those games, but the ML converted win total for the season is 6.8. So yeah, in sum, it's a pass on a season play for the Broncos.
Current lines for season wins: 5Dimes 8 (+220 O, -300 U)