2015 College Football Sun Belt Conference Season Wins Analysis
Looking at my MAC Raw Record Projections, you see that there is at least one team projected to win every possible number of games from 1 through 10. The standard deviation of the ML Projected Wins for the MAC is 1.51 (2.15 in the SB). In the Sun Belt you'll find a pretty noticeable gap in the middle range of projections. While the MAC appears to have a middling group of teams with some potential to upset the upper teams in the conference, the Sun Belt does not. The Sun Belt is comprised of the haves and the have nots, with Texas State alone finding itself, like so much of the United States, a member of the all but vanished middle class. Southern Alabama is poised to join the middle class -- time will tell. Newcomers Georgia Southern and Appalachian State emerged as the two best teams in the division, right out of the gate. Do any of the old guard have what it takes to take out the new kids on the block this year? I don't think so.
Appalachian State
APP caught fire midway through the season last year, not just covering spreads, but winning outright as dogs at ARST and ULL as well. App first hit the radar with an earthquake sized blip after demolishing Troy in week #8. This set up the confidence to make a play on them against GAST the following week possibly the biggest wager of the year. Why? Huge snow storm + GAST on the road + suddenly good looking APP squad. The Under also ended up being a winner, I believe. I rode the APP money train in their final 5 games of the season -- they were certainly a bright spot for me in an otherwise disappointing season that saw me down a bit, lol.
This year APP returns more starters than anyone else in FBS, I believe. They have a favorable schedule with a solid potential of winning 10 games this year. The ML projection tempers that enthusiasm with a number of 8.1. The projections reflect close wins @ ODU and at home versus ARST & ULL. Maybe at even juice I'd flirt with them winning 2 of those 3, but at -215? Umm, no.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 8.5 (-215 Over +165 Under)
Arkansas State
The Red Wolves enjoy the luxury of a returning head coach for the first time in a while. In spite of the coaching carousel they've cemented their position as one of the "haves" in the conference for many seasons (which has lead to the coach pilfering, of course...). ARST gets almost everyone back on offense. ARST has a tough non-con schedule with their best chance of winning a game @ Toledo. So yeah, it's most likely 3 losses on the schedule in the first month. That means they could lose just one more game to hit the Over. I project a loss @ APP. Now we're at 8 wins. With a game @ SOAL and home against ULL and TXST we're probably looking at one more loss, which is why I have a raw projection of 8-4 and ML projection of 7.2. It's a pass with an Over lean. They could end up sweeping conference play, though, absolutely.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 7 (+105 Over -145 Under)
Georgia Southern
GASO loses almost their entire starting offensive line, but that's about it. Does that warrant such a pessimistic win total of 7.5? I don't think so. GASO had such a superior run game to anyone else in the conference last year that even with a healthy regression factored in the rest of the conference shouldn't catch up. Whatever offensive linemen they end up fielding were recruited into the system, so have a little faith, lol.
An upset at West Virginia in week #1 would be exciting, but my line that puts them with an outsidish chance of doing so is more optimistic than the current betting line. Counting that game and a roadie at Georgia as losses, what can they do with the remaining 10 games? They get an early visit from WMU -- that will be a tough game. I project a win, but let's say it's a loss and they've got 9 games now. Their toughest road conference game is at APP. Hey, I like GASO to win that one as well, but let's say they don't. What can they do with 8 games? Win them all by two+ touchdowns, I say. They have an extremely soft conference schedule outside of the APP game, missing ARST and ULL this year. It would take injuries and bad luck to win less than the worst case scenario 8 games I'm seeing for them this year.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: GASO OVER 7.5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 7.5 (-115 Over -125 Under)
Georgia State
Right in line with my projections. Pass. GAST will have a matured roster this season, and returns the QB in what was their only strength last year, the passing game. With a little luck they could beat the other bottom feeders of the Sun Belt and get Over the number. But with that juice...still a pass.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 2.5 (-140 Over +100 Under)
Idaho
Can a Petrino bring any success to the most sad sack football school in FBS? My magic 8 ball says "not this year." To close to my projections. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 3.5 (+110 Over -150 Under)
New Mexico State
The Aggies have a more mature roster this year. Their running game last year was a bit better than their fellow Sun Belt cellar dwellers with the exciting Larry Rose III. Depth and defense doom their desire to improve much, unfortunately. Best case scenario for the Aggies? 5 wins, which they'd be thrilled with. Worst case? Zero, zip, nada. So 3 with the juice on the Under indeed seems to be an accurate line.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 3 (+125 Over -165 Under)
Southern Alabama
The Jaguars lost a ton of players after last season, more than anyone else in the conference. To offset that they picked up a lot of pieces from the shuttered and shattered UAB program. Former UAB QB Cody Clements is much better than last year's starter, Brandon Bridge. Bridge is gone, so that's one Bridge they wouldn't have to burn to put Clements in control of the offense. If things gel SOAL could be a dangerous out for Sun Belt opponents this year. If. I did make a manual adjustment to SOAL's projections in the passing game with the addition of Clements (and a couple of good targets, as well) of 10%. Considering they were near worst in FBS last year, that doesn't seem unreasonable.
I project SOAL to beat Gardner-Webb, @ Troy, Idaho and @ GAST. That right there puts them Over the 3.5 wins. I think against ARST, TXST, ULL and APP they'll manage to steal one game. They do have a tough schedule but I think 4 games is their floor this season.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 3.5 (-135 Over -105 Under)
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: SOAL OVER 3.5 WINS
Troy
The Neal Brown era begins in 2015. His predecessor was the head coach at Troy since before any of the players were born. Troy returns a lot of offensive pieces and could certainly show some marginal gains as a squad this year, but 4 wins is the exact number that can't be flirted with. Lean on the Under with the + juice, but with 1 D 1-AA game and 5 toss up conference games on the schedule it's a pass.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 4 (-150 Over +110 Under)
Texas State
Just looking at my projections I can see that this is a pass.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 7 (+115 Over -155 Under)
University of Louisiana-Lafayette
Just looking at my projections I can see that this is a pass. Of the upper echelon Sun Belt teams, ULL is the only one to lose their starting QB, Terrance Broadway. ULL was one of three SB teams with a decent pass offense last year (of which GAST was suprisingly one!)
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 8 (+100 Over -140 Under)
University of Lousiana-Monroe
ULM had the worst running game in the FBS last year, with a sub top 100 passing offense as well. That made it hard for the Sun Belt's 2nd best offense to win games last year, though it sure as hell kept them close to pulling some nice upsets, as they lost by a score or less to TXST, TA&M (on the road!), APP, ULL and GASO. That's rough.
A healthy portion of the defense returns, which they'll have to lean on again. The offense does at least get a good RB in the backfield with the returned of injured DeVontae McNeal. The QB position will be filled with inexperienced, regardless of who gets the starting nod.
The juice on 4 wins is in line with my projections. Unfortunately for ULM and their quest for more than 4 wins this season the bulk of their winnable games come on the road, against Tulsa, Idaho and Troy. ULM is, however, one of the 5 FBS teams with a negative Standardized Home Field Advantage, so I expect them to win at least 2 of those, which puts them on 4 wins for the season. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 4 (-210 Over +160 Under)