2015 College Football American Athletic Conference Team Season Wins Analysis
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 American Athletic Conference Team Wins Analysis
Cincinnati
The pieces are in place for the Bearcats to have a monster offensive year in 2015. The return of injured backs plus their QB Kiel and most of their offensive playmakers should have the rest of the AAC shaking in their shoes. The Bearcats' defense was dead middle of the AAC pack last year, but with the solid recruiting Cincy has done they should show improvement in this and upcoming years. They dealt with a lot of injuries on defense last year, too.
I do, in fact, favor CIN to win every AAC game this year, which includes the tough outs of @MEM @ECU and @HOU. The only two raw projection losses I'm showing for CIN are @BYU and vs. MIA. I don't have them as large dogs to BYU, though, just 5.5 points. I project CIN to win a lot of games by between 5.5 and 8.3 points -- 6, as a matter of fact! That's why their ML projection of 8 wins is lower than their raw projection of 10.
Can we safely count on CIN to get 8+ wins and avoid losing a wager with a prohibitive -160 juice? Which games seem the most loseable? In order - MIA, @BYU, @MEM, @ECU and @HOU. Beyond that I favor CIN by more than 7 points in each game. It would take losing all 5 of those contests, plus another like TEM, UCF or @USF to lose the Over. Given that CIN could steal one @BYU I think Over 7.5 wins is worth a small play. With anything near average luck they'll win a minimum of 8 games.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: CIN OVER 7.5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-160 Over +120 Under)
Connecticut
CONN is set for another year of bad offense and decent defense. CONN probably won't be much of a favorite over Villanova in the season opener -- usually it's nice to rely on a D 1-AA win when looking at taking a season Over play. My ML projection should probably rate it a 50% win against Villanova instead of the automatic 100% versus a D 1-AA school that is usually applied. Here are the winnable games for CONN this year: VILL, ARMY, USF, ECU @TULN and HOU. I even project them to lose by less than a TD @UCF and @TEM. It seems from this past year I was more bullish on UCONN than most (with a great upset pick against UCF...and a terrible 2 unit loss to SMU). I mean, crikeys, they only won one game last year. They were super young, and are still relatively so. While I think the potential is there for 4 or 5 win season, the potential is also there for a 1 or 2 win season. LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 3 (+105 Over -145 Under)
Eastern Carolina
Carden to Hardy is gone, and the pass defense might still be missing. I see 4 games on the Pirates schedule that I really like them to lose, and I think CIN takes them in the home finale as well. Add in additional closely projected games and ECU could not make a Bowl this season. But...they recruit pretty well and will put talent at the missing positions, so they could also be a sleeper that wins its final 6 games of the year to get up to 8 for the season. It's a pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-120 Over -120 Under)
Houston
There's plenty to be excited about as Houston fan this year with the hiring of HC Herman and the return of QB Ward. Ward was a receiver at the beginning of last season, so this is his first off season prepping as a QB, and Herman is the man responsible for working with OSU's amazing stable or QBs over the last few years. There is upside here, to say the least. They've got a new DC in Orlando, as well, and they'll be switching up the line formation. Probably not a huge deal as the defensive line was the weakness of the team last year. Asking for 9+ wins still seems like a lot for a team that finished with a TSC Power Ranking of 89th. To the schedule we go...
Can we find enough solid losses for this Cougar squad to make laying -210 juice a good bet on the Under? You know what? You can't. Other than @LOU in week #2, any other projected loss for HOU is by an average of just 4 points, and 4 of those 5 games come at home later in the season. Way too much possible variance here. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (+160 Over -210 Under)
Memphis
Memphis returns most of an emerging offense this season, but loses as much defensive stopping power as any team in the AAC. The Tigers retain the services of the best punter and kicker combo in the AAC, hands down. Some may claim that Memphis' defense was much better than it's offense, but my stats didn't see it that way. I actually ranked their offense ahead of their defense at 41st versus 44th. There was really no other offense within spitting distance of CIN, MEM and ECU last year in the AAC. I have MEM with the #1 defense in the AAC last year, with only UCF within 10 ranks of them in the conference. They project out pretty close to CIN this season, but with one less raw win and 0.3 less ML projected wins. I even project CIN to win a squeaker at MEM this year. There are enough tricky spots on their schedule to stay away from a season play on MEM at 8.5. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-1.05 Over -1.25 Under)
SMU
SMU with the hiring of HC Chad Morris begins the process of turning a sloooooow, beat horse destined for the glue factory into a sleek, swift pony that is once again competitive. Morris gets the "benefit" of starting at the program when it's at its' absolute lowest point -- I ranked them as both the worst offense and defense in FBS last year.
SMU should get the win against James Madison, which perhaps gratefully comes a month into the season and not right at the onset. I like SMU to beat an equally squalid and less hopeful UNT at home in week #2. Tulsa at home in week #9 looks like an eminently winnable game as well. That would make 3. That -1.75 juice, though...any more wins on the schedule? The outlook is not great -- a possibility vs. Tulane, and a 1/4 chance @USF. Other than that it's a pretty tough schedule for SMU. This number does not appear to be one to flirt with.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 2.5 (-1.75 Over +1.35 Under)
Temple
God that Temple defense could be frustrating to bet against at home last year. The Owls frequently looked like flattened taxidermy on paper last year, only to rise up squawking to improbable covers and/or victories. Did anyone else go large on ECU @ TEM last year, only to have ECU lose outright after outgaining TEM 428 to 135 yards (#!@$##!) because of a 5-0 turnover margin? Filthy.
The Owls defense figures to be even better this year. They return all 11 starters on their defense, and 90% of their total tackles! That's an imposing stat, right there. I had them as the 4th best defense in the AAC last year (and much lower than other name brand ratings out there). They will probably move to the #1 spot this year.
The offense returns a lot of starters, yards and the QB as well. The kicker and punter? Returning, but of course.
That offense, though -- only 103rd best in the FBS last year. Ouch. They were closer to CONN, USF, TLSA and TULN numbers wise than the actually good offenses in the conference. It will be their shortcoming again.
Apparently the market is with me in not rating Temple's defense to be a top 20 squad, because 7 wins would seem pretty low otherwise, given the nature of their schedule. There are 3 likely losses on Temple's schedule, but after that, every game is winnable. I see about 6 highly wins on the schedule. So yeah, the line at 7 wins seems about right, with the small lean on the Over juice. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-130 Over -110 Under)
Tulsa
Another offensive mastermind takes over as head coach for an AAC team. This time it's Phillip Montgomery, most recently the OC of Baylor's high octane offense. He won't have to start with a roster quite as bereft as SMU's, but it's not that much better. I see Tulsa losing a minimum of 7 games this year, which already puts them on the line on the O/U line of 5. Is their enough optimism for pessimism in Tulsa to lay the -160 juice on the Under?
Tulsa does start off with a couple of winnable games, vs FAU and @UNM. Then again, I project them to lose both by a field goal. Assuming a split, they then go on to lose at OKLA and at home against HOU (more than likely). They beat ULM in a close one at home, then lose at ECU and vs MEM. Let's say they do in fact beat SMU on the road. That brings them to 3 wins. They then lose handily @CIN and vs. Navy. Another disappointing season is capped off by a loss @TULN in week #13. 3 wins. Assuming improvement and a best case scenario that gets them to 5 wins, who would they have to beat for the Under 5 to lose? HOU, MEM, UCF or Navy at home, or ECU or CIN on the road. But that's only in the best case scenario. If they drop even one of those closely contested games, suddenly they have to beat two teams who are a step up in quality over them. And if they drop two close games...you get the picture.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: TULSA UNDER 5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5 (+120 Over -160 Under)
Tulane
I frequently seem to like Tulane statistically in a match up, only to see them underperform, especially on offense. This number with the juice seems accurate, as the best, best case scenario for Tulane this season will be about 6 wins.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5 (+145 Over -185 Under)
University of Central Florida
UCF was a squad I consistently found myself fading last year, with what seems like mixed results, if memory serves. They capped off the season with a final cap in my ass after the Hail Mary winner @ECU. It was that kind of season, lol.
This year UCF has to replace most of their starting secondary and linebacking corps. The d-line should still be pretty solid. Still, I ranked UCF's pass defense better than their run defense last year, so we're looking at a team that might find itself mediocre in the 4 match up categories.
The market seems equally unkeen to forecast a season as good as UCF has become accustomed to having over it's last few. 7 wins at -150 Over is not terribly optimistic. Is there any value one way or the other?
@STAN and @SCAR -- there are two probable losses. @CIN is another. I really only see 5 solid wins on their schedule, and that's being a bit generous given some of the spreads I've projected. I will probably be fading UCF in week #1 against FIU, and will keep on doing so if my lines tell me to. Given my raw projection of 8 wins (the optimist's view) and 6.1 projected ML wins (the realist's + my stat's natural pessimism for UCF's view) means I should probably just leave this line alone.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-150 Over +110 Under)
University of South Florida
Nerp, unh-uh, not gonna' do it. In spite of the fact that I project USF to not lose any conference games by double digits, recent history of Willie Taggart's underperforming squad of Bulls indicate that they'll shit the bed on numerous occasions and get blown out anyway. And then...and then they'll win every close game they play meaning they'll probably end up right on the 4 games won after all.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-105 Over -135 Under)
Navy
Well hello, sailor! Navy joins the AAC this year and is instantly the best team in the conference. Yup, that's what my TSC Power Rankings say. This in spite of the fact that they had 5 losses last year. Why? Because their run offense is So. God. Damn. Good. On top of that, when passes were needed either for obvious passing downs or for any down unpredictability, Keenan Reynolds could deliver. This kind of offense can be deadly, and difficult to shut down. Just ask anyone who played GT last year. Navy's defense last year was a little below average by AAC standards, but the offense more than makes up for it.
I have Navy winning 8 games this season by more than a touchdown. I project close wins @HOU, vs ECU and @MEM. The only raw loss I project is @ND. I'm going to bet on that bottom floor of 8 wins for Navy, and hope they stay healthy, especially at the QB position.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: NAVY OVER 7.5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-130 Over -110 Under)