2015 College Football Conference USA Team Season Wins Analysis
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 Conference USA Team Wins Analysis
Florida Atlantic University
The Owls were about as effective as their feathered mascot would be at stopping the run last year, but were pretty good against the pass. Their offense was subpar across the board. The offense will probably improve, but there are no guarantees for the defense up front. My win projections are right in line with the betting line. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 5 (-130 Over -110 Under)
Florida International University
Looking at the Panthers schedule, it looks VERY unlikely that they'll bank more than 6 wins this season -- the ML projection of 5 seems very accurate. Here are their probably losses: @UCF (though I think it will be closer than expected), @IND, @LT, @MRSH, vs WKU. The only two "for sure" wins on their schedule are against N.C. Central and Charlotte. Other than that I project a lot of close games that could go either way, with a game @MTU having just a 26% of winning. So much would have to go right for the Panthers just to get the 6 wins to push the wager, let alone lose it with 7+. It's 2 to get 1 juice on the play, but I think it's worth risking a 1/2 unit to win 1/4.
ADDING TO WIN 1/4 UNIT: FIU UNDER 6 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 6 (+155 Over -195 Under)
Louisiana Tech
The biggest shoes to fill for the Bulldogs this upcoming year will be at QB and up front on what was last year a very good defensive line. There are enough pieces still in place to not expect too much regression, though. If they can plat at last year's level, they can reach double digit wins while sweeping their CUSA schedule, which benefits for the lack of finding Marshall on it. Other than an early game @WKU (a 5.5 point projected win for LT), I project LT to win by 10+ points against the rest of their schedule. For LT to lose an Over 8 games play on them, they'll have to lose 3+ games to the most likely suspects of WKU, ULL, MTU, Rice and UTEP. I think it's worth wagering on them taking at least 3 of those games while not dropping any to the even weaker teams.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: LT OVER 8 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 8 (-115 Over -125 Under)
Marshall
Ahhh, the mighty Thundering Herd. I project Marshall to have the best chance of going undefeated of any team in the FBS. They will be without dual threat QB Rakeem Cato and a host of other quality players on both sides of the ball, but it's not a complete rebuild and their recruiting and depth should find them on a level near last year's.
Looking at this year's schedule, is their anyone on it you'd favor against Marshall in that game? No. I'll concede that my statistics on Marshall are bullish coming into this year because of the way they so thoroughly thrashed the bulk of their schedule last year. I mean, they really banked an impressive statistical portfolio the first 2/3 of the season. So yes, on their own, Marshall is probably statistically overvalued coming into this season. But here's the thing, my regression, returning starters and recruiting modifiers have been factored into the projections for every game, and Marshall takes a pretty strong hit in that regard. Their passing game has a -10.1% summed modifier on it, and their run game has a -12.7% summed modifier on it. In spite of this I have Marshall still winning every game on their schedule by double digits.
Here is a list of the games where Marshall is favored by between 10 and 14 points: Purdue, @Ohio, @MTU and @WKU. Every other game is in the 20s+ (with the exception of @FAU at 18.6 points). Marshall over the last many years hasn't been a great road team, actually, playing far better at home -- but that is also factored into my lines. It seems much more likely to me that Marshall wins 3+ of those 4 games than losing 3+. I'd bet on it.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: MRSH OVER 10 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 10 (-125 Over -115 Under)
Middle Tennessee University
The Blue Raiders are poised to have a solid year that could spike into a very good year if they're able to win some closely projected losses. I think they're good for a solid 5 wins but beyond that there are too many close calls to risk a season wager one way or the other. I think the line and juice are accurate.
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 7 (+160 Over -210 Under)
Old Dominion
I'm projecting the Monarch's pass offense to tail off somewhat with the loss of QB Taylor Heinicke this year. But a lot? There's reason to think not so much. He completed a decent percentage of his passes, but for a subpar 6.7 ypp average. He threw 14 picks. ODU will either be going with a highly touted freshman or a solid JUCO transfer at QB. As much as the numbers tempt me to take another OVER on a CUSA team, the QB situation might scare me off it -- oh yeah, that and the defense which was horrible last year and still doesn't rate to make any great improvements this year. Can ODU outgun it's way to Bowl eligibility this year? More importantly (for now), how certain are they to clear 5+ wins?
@EMU and vs. Norfolk State in the first two games should net them two wins to start the season. After that they'll be hoping to steal one at home from APP in the next month, with losses to NCST and @MRSH looking highly likely. After a bye they get Charlotte at home, which should be good for another win. That's 3, let's say. After that I project ODU to be involved in one score games against conference opponent's for the remainder of the season. I project them to win many of those, but the sum ML projection for those 6 games is 3.57 wins. I'm really tempted to take the Over here, but I think any variance in the statistical output from last year to this year will be downward, especially on offense, meaning I could easily be flirting with losing a highly juiced line at -185 if the squad doesn't gel. I'm already 3 bets into CUSA and I'm trying to limit myself to 4 bets per conference, so I'm going to reluctantly pass. STRONG LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 4.5 (-185 Over +145 Under)
Rice
The Owls are poised to solidify the gains they made in the passing game last year. They lose some play makers and experience on the line, but they've got a solid, if unspectacular stable of RBs returning. QB Driphus Jackson had a breakout season last year. He has the ability to make things happen with his arm or legs, plus solid decision making equaling a low turnover rate. I had Rice with the 3rd best passing game in the CUSA last year, behind only the offensive juggernauts of MRSH and WKU. Rice's defense was sub-top 100, though, and graduated a lot of players. On the plus side, they have both kickers returning.
Looking at the schedule there's just too much unpredictability with a fairly high number of closely contested games to venture a wager on either the Over or Under. If anything, I'd lean with my numbers and the Under. @TEX and @BAY are 2 losses. They get their two toughest con. games at home against WKU and LT. Good news if you're even with those teams, but I project Rice to be behind those teams and lose. Games @ FAU, @UTEP and @UTSA could go either way. They get only their 3rd likely win against ARMY, and that's it (likely meaning any game where I favor them more than a TD). In spite of only 3 "likely" wins, they should nab between 3 or 4 more, and maybe even 5. All in all, still a pass. LEAN UNDER
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 7.5 (-115 Over -125 Under)
University of North Texas
Last year, The Football Men in Green were only about as Mean as a nasty booger lodged far up in your nasal passage, denying you a pleasurable pick and no success at inhaling backwards into your system. Did I just type that? Gross. Speaking of gross, UNT was bottom 13 or worse in the 4 run and pass offense/defense categories last year. They just plain sucked at everything. Even factoring in regression in their favor this year, it could still end up being a horrible year because of their schedule. Portland State might very well be the only team UNT beats this year. I project 5 losses for UNT of less than one score, 3 of those coming at home. I project 4 losses of more than 20 points for UNT, and a loss of 16.4 points @ MTU and 14.75 points against WKU. That means UNT would have to win every single one of those closely projected losses for an Under 5 games bet to lose. They would have to win these specific games: @SMU (tough), versus Rice (tougher), @USM (tough), versus UTSA (possible!), and versus UTEP (also surprisingly possible). All of them, they'd have to win all of them (*with the don't sue me if I'm wrong assumption they lose all the games in which they are big dogs).
Heavy juice on the Under? Yes. Even heavier chance of a push at worst? Hell yes.
ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: UNT UNDER 5 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5Dimes 5 (+145 Over -185 Under)
Zoinks! That's already 4 plays I like in the CUSA so far. What's next...
...nothing. That's it. I did a quick look at USM, UTEP, UTSA and WKU and there's nothing there I like.
CUSA is a very tiered conference -- 6 teams on the bottom, 4 teams in the middle (I put WKU as the top of the middling teams, not as the lowest of the top teams) and MRSH and LT at the top. I'm betting on that class division continuing through 2015, with Overs on the two top teams, and Unders on a couple of the bottom tier teams. The standard deviation of the ML projections is even greater in CUSA than in the Sun Belt.
I said once earlier that I was looking forward to the Sun Belt this year (because of the instant impact of APP and GASO who joined last year). After looking at the bottom 3ish conferences I don't hold that position any more. So far it's the MAC that has the most potential for exciting games and upsets every week. Time to delve into the AAC next...