2015 College Football Mountain West Conference Team Season Wins Analysis

The Sports Cruncher's 2015 Mountain West Conference Team Wins Analysis

Here's the fifth and final mid major conference team wins analysis, and the one I've found the most to like, with 5 plays, and some strong leans on top of that.

The MAC and AAC will be the most competitive, in terms of parity, of the mid majors, according to my projections.

Air Force Academy

The Falcons had a solid season last year, and oddly enough had a run defense that was much, much stronger than their run offense. Heck, their pass offense was their best unit of all!

With the loss of their QB, solid place kicker and much of their defensive depth, regression seems highly likely given the unlikely success of a 10 win season last year on the heels of a 2 win season. This is not a program that is going to recruit double digit wins every year. Looking at the schedule and my numbers, splitting the difference of 2 and 10 to land on 6 seems is the right number for Air Force this year. Pass.

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-160 Over +120 Under)

Boise State

The Broncos will have to go with inexperience at QB this year, and don't look to have a formidable group of running backs. That is it, though, for actual weaknesses that might not turn out to be weaknesses given the talent and depth around them. The Broncos are super solid in the trenches and the perimeters. What will probably derail the Broncos from running the table this year is that their 3 toughest games all come in the first month, vs. WASH, @BYU and @UVA. I think those games will all be tougher than their trip to Logan to face USU in week #7. Odds are that BSU will lose one of those September games. After that I think they win the rest, with the only potential testers being the aforementioned USU game and a week #6 games @CSU (who might regress more than predicted this year). Getting any plus juice at all on the Over is a bonus which I'll gladly take as I think 2 losses is the worst case scenario. If the worst worst case scenario of 3+ losses happens, then c'est la vie, and sucks to be me (or a Broncos fan).

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: BSU OVER 10 WINS

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 10 (+110 Over -140 Under)

Colorado State

CSU gets former UGA OC Bobo in his first HC gig after McElwain's departure to FLA. The only other big "?" of the season is replacing the best CSU has had in ages. Still a ton of talent on offense and the defense is set to be even better. The only two really probable losses on the schedule are @MINN and @BSU. CSU has the potential to challenge for the win @USU. SDSU will be another tough game, even at home. That being said, there are also only 3 highly likely wins on the schedule as well, leaving half the games as one score affairs, though I do like CSU to win the bulk of those. With the + juice on the I'd lean Over, but it's a pass.

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (+140 Over -180 Under)

Fresno State

The Raisin Runners game shriveled last year after losing some top talent, most notably QB Derek Carr. Rice > Raisins we found out in the Bowls last year, as sharp money backed the winning ingredient all the way to the bank.

Fresno lost a bunch more players heading into this year, and is really in rebuild mode now. A winning record, let alone five hundred, will be a difficult chore for them this year. Other than a week #1 cupcake, they might not find a win on their schedule until week #7 vs. UNLV. After that they rate to pick up a couple of wins in games @AFA, vs. NEV, @HAW and vs. CSU. So the 4 wins of the raw wins projections seems right, and in my opinion closer to the truth than the 5.6 ML projection, in this case. If anything, I'd lean the Under with the +juice here, but it's a pass, as even the slightest unexpected improvement will get them to 4 wins leaving us on the wrong end of a freeroll.

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-190 Over +150 Under)

Hawaii

Not a lot of pride in the Rainbow Warriors parade of losing seasons under Norm Chow at this point. The Over/Under on him lasting the season as HC might be closer to even money than the very lopsided seasons win line. There will be some intrigue if the former Trojan Statue of Inefficiency, Max Wittek, gets the starts at QB this season. New OC Bailey brings his Idaho State Spuds on Steroids speed of play to Spam land this year. If what's good for spuds is good for Spam Hawaii could be an entertaining team that flirts with 4 or 5 wins this season. The Under 6 looks like free money, which is why there's a -270 price tag attached to it. For the bet to lose they'd have to win 4 games which I project them to be an average dog of almost 7 points. So, so unlikely, that I'm willing to tie up over 1% of the season's bankroll on a half unit payoff at the end of the season.

ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: HAWAII UNDER 6 WINS

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (+190 Over -270 Under)

Nevada

The Wolfpack lose the main ingredient of their Offensive Fajita with Fajardo graduating. Fajardo was their Pistol Power -- will Nevada look like a neutered flower on offense this year?

Nevada's defense was not as good as the final scores would have you believe last year. You can call it a "bend don't break" defense, I call it getting more than your fair share of luck in the red zone. Nevada had the 2nd best yards to points allowed ratio in the MWC last year, giving up 3.8 points per game less than the yards allowed usually surrenders.

While it's entirely possible the floor drops out of Nevada's 2015 season, there are still 7 winnable games on the schedule. But let's look at the ceiling; with games vs. ARIZ, @TA&M, @USU and @SDSU that's a pretty near guaranteed 4 losses. If NEV loses just one more game you're free rolling on the Under. With games @BUFF (I project a close win), vs. UNM (ditto), @WYO (ditto), @FRES (close loss projected) and vs. SJSU (close win projected) it is of course likely they lose 1+ more games. In this shaky floor versus a solid ceiling scenario, I think a shot against a regressing Wolfpack is worth it.

ADDING TO WIN 1/2 UNIT: NEVADA UNDER 7 WINS

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (+150 Over -190 Under)

San Diego State University

The Aztecs have the 2nd best return rate of defensive strength from last year in the MWC, behind only BSU. With AFA, CSU and USU due for some normal regression, SDSU is poised to become the actual 2nd best defense in the MWC.

They'll need that defensive solidity, as the Achilles heel located in their quarterback's helmet can only be cautiously upgraded from Greek Tragedy to a parlor mystery. RB Pumphrey is no parlor mystery, however, he's a magnet for defenses that still shows the ability to shrug off defenders with the apparent flip of a polarity switch. SDSU's bottom 10 pass offense will find it impossible to be any worse, which will either allow to Pumphrey to continue piling up yards, or make defenses pay the price with more successful passing plays. All 3 of the Aztecs match up units I ranked in the 50s. If the passing game can leave the triple digits of despair, this will be a very dangerous team this year.

The raw W/L projections reflect that potential, with 10 wins. The ML projections tamp that down to 8.6 wins. Is the Over with the stiff juice worth a shot? Let's look at the ceiling. Games @CAL and @PSU should be losses, but I rate a slightly better than 50% chance that SDSU could steal one of these games, which would create some early season waves. Let's assume them losses for now, as well as @CSU and vs. USU (even though I project SDSU to win both these contests. In this worst case so far scenario, there's the 4 loss buffer, gone. As for the floor, I project SDSU to have 7 double digit wins. That leaves one game to decide this stand off between best case/worst case scenarios -- week #7 at SJSU. I like SDSU to win this game by a touchdown.

Because I'd kick myself if I didn't make a winning bet on the Over here, I'm compelled to play it, but with less exposure risking half a unit, not to win half a unit.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: SDSU OVER 7.5 GAMES

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 .5 (-175 Over +135 Under)

San Jose State University

SJSU signed a ridiculously high recruiting class this year, and they could certainly use any immediate return on those signees, as their team stumbled right on back to their pre-David Fales level of offensive ineptitude. The Spartans did a horrific job at converting yards into points, and on defense a near equally lousy job at stopping opponents from converting their yards into points, ranking last in the MWC in both categories by a not even close margin. Speaking of not even close, SJSU's pass defense I rated 9th last year...but their fun defense 95th. Given the choice between facing Jeckyll or Hyde

on defense, teams chose to plow over Hyde with the run over, and over, and over again. 70% of all plays run against SJSU were runs, 15% higher than the FBS average.

I think the Over or Under season wins for SJSU will come down to games vs. Fresno and their trip to Hawaii late in the season. I do project SJSU to win those games against rebuilding Fresno and a mostly hapless Hawaii, but I think I'll pass, as I've already found several wagers I like in the MWC. STRONG LEAN OVER

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-125 Over -115 Under)

University of Nevada Las Vegas

With nowhere to go but up (or so the thinking goes) UNLV has hired a high school coach to run the Rebel Revue. QB Decker wasn't horrible in trying to shoulder the entire offense last year. It's a plus that he's returning. So while they look to improve offensively with some decent backs and receivers, the offensive line lost more starts than they return, so it's all back up in the air again.

A defensive reset up front as well doesn't guarantee any improvement for a bottom 5 defense, but at least they can't get much worse.

I'm not sure UNLV will even be favored at home versus Idaho State in week #4. That should knock off a full half game from the ML projection and make the raw record win shaky. The only other winnable game, really is at home versus Hawaii. What other games could they win to get more than 2, assuming they win the 2? @WYO in the final week could be close, but late season Wyoming weather and late season "who gives a shit last game on the roaditis" make a UNLV upset seem less likely in reality than on paper. At home against SJSU in the middle of the season? It's possible, but SJSU has way more upside than UNLV this season. Beyond that is a litany of possible and probably blow out losses. Unfortunately for UNLV they have to face the weaker parts of their schedule almost exclusively on the road. No part of your schedule is that weak, though, when you're the weaker team against everyone but a possible FCS squad. I'm so tempted to take the Under here. If the line were 3 games at even -200 juice I'd jump on that, as it seems like a free roll. STRONG LEAN UNDER

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 2.5 (+105 Over -145 Under)

University of New Mexico

The line squares up exactly with my projections, but let's take a quick look.

The Lobos had a running game that threatened to beat many tougher opponents last year, but unfortunately a defense that threatens to forget which side of the field they're defending at times. But about that running game...I rated it tops in the MWC, just edging out BSU and NEV. Jhurell Pressley averaged an insane 9.5 ypc on over 100 carries, making Teriyon Gipson at 5.5 ypc look like the red-headed stepchild of the backfield. QB Jordan was a freshman last year, so there's definite upside there.

Counting on more continuity in the defensive personnel and product, how many games can the Lobos hope to win this season? I think 4 wins is the floor, with a cupcake, Tulsa and their terrible run defense at home in week #2, New Mexico State at home in week 5, and the poor mainland playing Hawaii in week #7. That's 4 home game probable wins. After that, though the remaining home games will be very tough against USU, CSU and AFA in the final month, when roster depth or lack thereof can really take a toll. New Mexico still rates to win one of those games, with their best chance being against Air Force. The -175 juice, however, makes 6 wins the safe number to look at. Can they get another win? They could win at Wyoming in week #4, as well as at Nevada or even SJSU. If UNM's defense improves, as well as the passing game, the Lobos suddenly have the potential to win 10 games, with "for sure" losses only at ASU and BSU. I'm going to bet that that improvement is realized to at least a small degree, which is all that is needed for the Over to cash.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: UNM OVER 4.5 WINS

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-175 Over +135 Under)

Utah State University

The Aggies are becoming rather accustomed to over-performing versus their recruiting rankings. Can it continue? A tough schedule will make it hard to have a phenomenal season. If USU drops off at all from last year's level of play they'll find themselves walking the razor's edge in game after game this season, as the only double digit win I project them having is in week #1 against FCS Southern Utah. Still, the Aggies seem bullet proof, as they continued to play well last year when even down to their 4th string or so quarterback.

Two new coordinators throw in some question marks this year, even if they run near the same systems. I think it will be hard for their run defense to play at the same level, it's the only squad where I'm projecting some back sliding. QB Keeton and his now bum knees didn't do well last year, and he actually posted the worst numbers of all the QBs who played last year, though having to face TENN was a non-luxury the other QBs enjoyed. But as they proved last year, they can sit him just as easily as not.

My projections square up pretty tightly with the posted line, so it's a pass.

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-110 Over -120 Under)

Wyoming

The passing game was the only bright spot for the Cowboys last year, but WYO loses both its' starting QB but its' top two WR as well. That and other player losses will make it hard for 2nd year coach Pohl to make any real headway this year. With a ML projection of 4.9 wins, this is a pass.

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5 (-120 Over -120 Under)

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