2015 College Football ACC Team Season Wins Analysis
- Paul A. Compton
- Aug 2, 2015
- 11 min read

The Sports Cruncher's 2015 ACC Team Wins Analysis
Boston College
It's hard to predict how hard BC will be hit from the loss of their entire offensive line + QB this season. They had a top 20 rush offense last year, and provided good betting value for most of the season, winning as outright dogs on multiple occasions. I have the loss of starters factored into my regression formulas -- but BC tests the outer boundaries with so much turnover. We'll have to wait and see. LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-125 Over -105 Under)
Clemson
A lot rides on the health of QB Watson for the Tigers this year. When he's missed with injuries Clemson's offense takes a huge dip. With or without Watson Clemson had a pretty disappointing run offense last year, ranking near the bottom of the ACC (a hair above VT and slightly better than WAKE -- gulp). The lack of a run game (and Watson) made Clemson a good fade at times last year, including one of my favorite scenarios, when I take a big dog and state that they might not even have to score to cover the spread. That's exactly what happened when I took a terrible Georgia State team against the Tigers last year.
Looking at the schedule, Clemson has a floor of 5 wins, but virtually no ceiling. I project 8 of their games to be decided by less than one score, and with their toughest games being vs. FSU, vs. ND and @MIA, with a little luck they could make a surprise run at an undefeated regular season. But luck runs both ways, and it hasn't run well for Clemson as of late -- if Watson goes down or plays hurt Clemson could be looking at that floor instead of the perfect ceiling. It's a definite pass on a season wins play for Clemson.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (-105 Over -125 Under)
Duke
Duke is a stats based handicappers enemy. Duke is my enemy. They over perform and cover/win more than they should. Is it hidden special teams talent, superior coaching? A prolonged streak of luck? They are the opposite of SJSU (who I profiled earlier), scoring 5 more points than should each game for the yards gained, while giving up almost a full touchdown less of points for the yards they give up (versus FBS averages). Bend but don't break or beautiful bastards? Duke graduated a lot of offensive "talent." I'm itching to ride the Duke Fade Train once again, even if it leads straight into a mountainside a good portion of the time again.
I'm looking at a floor of 3 wins for Duke, and a ceiling of 7 or 8 games. That's some value I can work with, especially with the +juice line.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: DUKE UNDER 7 WINS
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-150 Over +120 Under)
Florida State
FSU loses QB Winston and almost all of their career starts on the offensive line. The regression is factored in, and even a bit more manually because Winston is worth quite a bit more than the average graduating QB, like him or not (mostly not, I'm guessing). Even still, because it's a year that finds the better teams in the ACC with their own rebuilding projects, I project FSU to be the favorite in each game they play this year. They recruit at a much higher level than their conference competition, and even much better than the SEC Florida they play in the final week. This recruiting and transfers advantage means FSU has the capability of not dropping off in quality as much as everyone hopes they do. No team was as consistently over valued versus the point spread as the 'Noles last year (like the Patriots in the NFL for so many years) -- it will be interesting to see which way the value goes in their games this year. I definitely lean on the OVER for the season play, but with road games @GT, @CLEM and @FLA in the second half of the season, I'm probably going to pass. MIA and LOU will be tough challenges as well. I wouldn't want to sweat the Over heading into a game against the Gators in week #13. LEAN OVER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (+100 Over -1300 Under)
Georgia Tech
I just wrote about FSU, the most over-valued team versus the spread last year, and now we move right on to possibly the most under-valued, GT. Let's jump back even one more team to another fade-favorite, Duke. Duke managed to upset GT last year in spite of being outgained by 110 yards, being outgained in ypc, and especially in ypp (7.7 to 5.0). Duke was the only team without an excellent offense to beat GT last year (UNC and FSU the other two victors). Yes, the Yellow Jackets defense was clearly not the strength of their team, but they improved in the second half of the year, which helped them crush PITT, UVA, NCST, CLEM and upset UGA in that span. That's pretty impressive. Like everyone else, they let FSU win a close one against them, and then GT handled MSST pretty easily in a Bowl game, a win which yes, I did predict.
GT loses some offensive skill this year, but still keep the most important piece, their QB, as well as most of their offensive line. Their young defense should be better this year, and they return the kicker and punter. In theory, they could be nearly as good as last year. They have, however, a pretty damn tough schedule, meaning there's no value on the season Over play, especially with the juice. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-175 Over +145 Under)
Louisville
The Cardinals are ready to challenge Clemson as the best defense in the ACC, but unproven passing chemistry will likely stop LOU from being the best overall team in the conference. With a pretty solid floor of 6 wins I'm looking strongly at the OVER right now. LOU has only game on their schedule projected as a 2+ score loss, and that's AUB in week #1. Still, they've got a 25% chance to steal the upset there. Beyond that I project them to lose at FSU and that's it. I think they beat CLEM at home in a tight one, as well as potentially tough games @PITT, @UK and @NCST. With the line set at 7.5, that's 4 losses to work with. With the success of the team not riding on the health of a star QB, I like LOU's chances for the season to play at pretty close to the projections, nabbing 8 or 9 wins. Even if LOU loses 4 games in the first two months, they have a chance to win out in their last 6 games. I hope it doesn't come down to that, lol.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: LOU OVER 7.5
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-135 Over +105 Under)
Miami
The Hurricanes brought in a flood of ticket window cash midway through the season last year, only to see them go from playing like one of the best teams in the country to fall out of even being in the top 25 when the season ended. A decent chunk of that profit got swept right back out to sea with the tide.
QB Kaaya was possibly the best freshman QB in the FBS last year -- it will be exciting to see how his potential unfolds. This year could have it's ups and downs, though. Top RB Johnson, the top receiver, top tight end and 3 top linemen are gone. Looking at the numbers I'm not worried about replacing The Duke, honestly. Dorsett was a good receiver, but a good QB is infinitely more valuable than a good WR. The offensive line wasn't that great last year, really, and they've got a ton of juniors and sophomores to work with. Miami could be a very scary offense in a couple of years, if not immediately.
Taken as a whole, Miami's stats were still pretty impressive last year, and from what I can see they are leading me to be more optimistic than the market (to say the least). Right now I already 7 games that I project as double digit wins for Miami, and there's not a single game on their schedule that they don't have a very good chance of winning. There are a lot of dangerous teams in the ACC, but I'm going to bet that Miami can beat their fair share of them.
ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: MIA OVER 6.5
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6.5 (+100 Over -135 Under)
North Carolina State
The Wolfpack provided some sneaky good value late last year, covering their final 3 including upset wins @ UNC and vs UCF in a Bowl, a game of which I wrote that NCST would emerge as the winner and superior team. Nice to be right on calls like that! lol
NCST gets QB Brissett's senior season in 2015. He's a dual threat who is better at the run, but made good decisions in compiling a 23-5 TD-INT ratio last year. I rated NCST's run offense 2nd best in the ACC, edging out BC for that position (while well behind GT, of course). NCST returns a lot of starters and yards this year, though a couple of surprise transfers hurt their WR depth.
The Wolfpack defense was slightly below average by ACC standards (which are fairly high, with an average defensive ranking of 41 versus 52 for the offenses in the conference last year). A change in defensive alignment this year means it's up in the air as to whether NCST can maintain the defensive improvement they showed in the 2nd half of the season last year. The kicker and punter are both gone, too.
NCST has a soft mid major loaded out of conference schedule this year, giving them a quick floor of 4 wins to open the season. Add Wake to make it 5. And Syracuse to 6? More than likely. That means they need 2 more wins to get the Over. But games vs. LOU, @VT, CLEM, @BC, @FSU and vs UNC means there is no guarantee that they will. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-110 Over -120 Under)
Pittsburgh
Given that Pittsburgh gets about the weakest recruit rankings in the ACC, they seem to do a pretty good job of fielding competitive teams capable of beating any other team in the conference on any given Saturday. Or lose to Akron. Or give up 3 scores to Houston, for God's sake, in the final 3 minutes of a Bowl game to yack up the win and cover (that loss still stings).
The strength of the Panther's team, the offense, is set to be even better this year, returning almost everybody. If QB Voytik gets injured, though, it will be a huge blow.
New HC Narduzzi will be trying to imprint his MSU defensive mojo as quickly as possible to shore up Pitt's lackluster defense. They've had depth issues that won't be easy to solve this year.
PITT's schedule is such that I only project them to lose two games by more than one score, @GT and vs. MIA. I know my MIA lines tend to be inflated, I doubt the actual spread will be more than 7 when that game comes in the final week. So while the ceiling for wins has a high, unknowable potential, the same could be said of the floor in the opposite direction. They play a lot of solid teams. After an opening cupcake and revenge match @AKR there are no easy wins on the schedule (except @DUKE with as much as my numbers love to fade those Blue Devils). Too much variance, and too much riding on the health of QB Voytik. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-130 Over +100 Under)
Syracuse
Any gains SYR might have had from returning a healthy Hunt at QB will be negated by losing more defensive starters and tackles than any other team in the ACC this year. The Orange should pick up 3 non-conference wins, plus Wake at home -- beyond that they'll be a dog in every other game. Pass.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-105 Over -125 Under)
University of North Carolina
The offense was 70 ranks higher than the defense last year. The offense returns almost everyone. QB Williams is a real dual threat, but any time one player carries such a huge bulk of the offense, exposing themselves to so much risk of injury, you have to worry. Williams had a very high 169 rushes last year, almost 50% more than the tailback with the 2nd most rushes on the team. Williams and the UNC proved they could move the ball and score on any defense last year, but they lacked consistency.
The Tarheels have gone in for a complete defensive overhaul after their abysmal showing last year, bringing in Gene Chizik as DC with all new position coaches. Chizik has been out of the game for a couple of years -- it will be interesting to see how quickly he can get results. There is talent and returning players.
It looks like UNC has a solid floor of 5 wins (of mostly the usual non-con and FCS + Wake variety). Stuck in that log jam of good but not great ACC teams, though, UNC is just another team we'll have to pass on as they fight each other for wins in the 2nd half of the season.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-145 Over +115 Under)
University of Virginia
The Cavaliers seemed to be exactly that when I wagered for or against them on several occasions last year -- their level of play rarely matching the expectation I'd assigned them beforehand (except for the auto-bet FSU fade, of course). UVA had a surprisingly balanced and strong top 20 defense, in my book, with the offense lagging far behind at 59th. QB Lambert is gone, but his numbers weren't any better than Johns, who had near 1/3 of the play time anyway.
Both the offense and defense lost more than their fair share of starters heading into this year, but we're not talking total decimation here. The units rate to finish closer to each other than they finished last year, but man, what a schedule the Cavs have this year. They've got a 3 win floor, but only about a 6 win ceiling, barring some huge breakthroughs and luck. It's a pass on the season wins total.
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-120 Over -110 Under)
Virginia Tech
Another top 20 VT defense was done in by a dud offense last year. The Hokies were fairly young last year, so the injuries that hit them hurt harder than it might other teams. This year that means more experience and depth across the roster. VT is predicted to have a bounce back year, but I'll trust that offense only after I see it produce for a couple of games. They put up such horrible offensive numbers last year, reflected in my numbers and projections, that it's hard to gauge how big of bounce back that they will have, especially if they can stay healthy and gel (which they couldn't do last year).
Certainly the line makers and market look for a healthy rebound, with O/U of 8 wins. They're dogs in week #1 against OSU, but that line is creeping down toward single digits with OSU player suspensions. A loss there only affords them two more on the season to cash the Over. With game @ MIA and @GT I think their buffer is maxed. PITT and NCST will be tough outs, even at home, as will games vs UNC and @UVA.
Still, this a team who couldn't score in regulation against Wake Forest's 73rd ranked defense, for cry eye! Man, this is a tough call. The truth is, with even a moderately improved offense VT could nab another 3 conference wins, putting them at 9 for the year. Grr, guess I'll have to pass. LEAN UNDER
Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-115 Over -115 Under)
Did I forget to cover Wake Forest, a 2014 fade favorite? Why it looks like I did, lol. I project them to lose, a lot. They can get 4 wins if they beat Elon, Army, Syracuse and Duke. I don't think they will (beyond the first two), but hey, they're young and return a more mature squad. Nothing but upside for them, really. Pass.
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