2015 College Football B1G Team Season Wins Analysis

The Sports Cruncher's 2015 Big 10 Team Wins Analysis

Illinois

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (+100 Over -130 Under)

Illinois showed progress down the stretch last year, but were still predictably trounced by a Conference USA team, LT, in a Bowl. The Illini defense was fairly weak, across the board, but their offense didn't fare too badly, really, given the tough schedule of Big 10 defenses they faced. Still, when looking at the passing numbers, you can see that the team stocked up on yards in the first month, mostly before conference play began. In their first five games they averaged 342 passing yards, after that against the tougher defenses it dropped all the way down to 152.

Illinois plays the exact same 8 teams in the final 8 weeks as they did last year. This year the difference in home and away games should stop Illinois from bagging the same late season upsets that saw them just qualify for a Bowl last year. While they were able to narrowly beat MINN and PSU at home last year, I don't think they'll do that on the road this year. After the first batch of winnable games this year, Illinois gets NEB, WIS, OSU and NW at home. That's rough. I have the NW game as a toss up, and the other as double digit losses. 4 wins looks like the right number for Illinois this year.

Indiana

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-105 Over -125 Under)

The Hoosiers had a great offense last year until they lost every player to injury remotely capable of playing QB midway through the season. The running game still did pretty well, and that's with defenses knowing it was the only thing they really had to try and stop. Not factoring in the elements of scoring deficits and win % Indiana had a near top ten run offense. QB Sudfield returns, but the man responsible for the Hoosiers amazing run game, Tevin Coleman, is now in the NFL.

Indiana has the chance to hit the ground running with 4 straight wins to open the season. After that they hit that tough Big 10 schedule. Rutgers, Iowa, Maryland and Purdue are winnable games, but more will have to go right for IND than their opponent for the game and the season for that to occur. A split is the most likely scenario, making the offered win total just too tight to bet on. Pass.

Iowa

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (+100 Over -130 Under)

The Hawkeyes were decent at everything but running the ball last year. QB Beathard will get the starts now that Rudock has transferred to Michigan. There is nothing that screams of offensive excellence, or even improvement on defense this year. Iowa has a floor of 4-5 wins this year, but a ceiling that could reach as high as 10 games, as only trips to WIS and NEB are likely definite losses. It adds up to too much variance with my projections landing right on the betting line, anyway. Pass.

Maryland

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-135 Over +105 Under)

The Terps are already in the bottom tier of Big 10 recruiters, and now this year they face high turnover on top of that. Still, they had no glaring weaknesses last year and were really only dominated by the very best teams they faced last year -- OSU, WIS, MSU and STAN, a pretty lethal lineup.

QB C.J. Brown is gone -- he was never a great passer, but he had the most carries and highest ypc on the team. It will be interesting to see how the offensive identity changes this year with a QB that will probably suit the style of offense the Terps have wanted to play, anyway. There's just not enough experience on the offense to predict breakthrough success, though. Defensively they have a lot to replace up front.

Maryland could and should set the win floor at 3 games in the first month, but after that any win will be hard earned. There are 3 winnable games though, that could set them up for Bowl eligibility -- @IOWA, vs. IND and @RUTG. It's hard to see MD doing better than winning 2 of those, though, if that, meaning a week #13 trip to New Jersey will probably be their last game of the season. Pass.

Michigan

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-120 Over -110 Under)

Harbaugh. Good Defense. Poor offense. Transfer QB Rudock? More wins? Prediction, yes. LEAN OVER

Minnesota

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-120 Over -110 Under)

The Gophers are a solid squad, playing twice as good as their recruiting rank. But there's no value here, and nothing exciting really to say about the Gophers. Pass.

Michigan State

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (-150 Over +120 Under)

QB Connor Cook is the real collegiate deal. His solid play helped MSU to a top 10 ranked offense last year. Throw in an even better defense and my rankings really liked Sparty last year, ranking them 2nd overall. The comeback win against Baylor in the bowl was a nice win for me and even nicer win for the program, lol.

To say that WR Lippett was a favorite target of Cook would be an understatement -- Cook targeted him almost twice as much as any other receiver on the roster. We'll see how Cook spreads it around this year. Also gone is top RB Langford.

Speaking of the bowl game against Baylor, you'll remember how Petty was able to connect on numerous deep balls against the MSU cornerbacks. That will be probably be the Spartans' one defensive weakness again this year.

While the numbers definitely like MSU to get 10 or 11 wins this season, the -150 juice kind of sucks the value out of the Over. There's not a lot of room for error in a long season when betting on double digit wins. Pass.

Nebraska

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-140 Over +110 Under)

The Huskers will be living the life of Riley this year, bringing in the ORST HC who brought all of his old coordinators along for the ride as well. What ORST did on offense didn't bear any resemblance to catering to QB Armstrong's nature as a dual threat, so it's a definite wait and see scenario as far as I'm concerned. I'm statistically more bullish on Nebraska than the average handicapper, so maybe my projections for them this year should be taken with a small grain of salt. I think NEB has a solid floor of 7 wins, and will most likely get to 8 or 9 wins. If things go well for them, they could be undefeated when hosting MSU in week #10. If things don't, that game could be their fourth loss of the season. Just a little much uncertainty and juice to pull the trigger on the Over. LEAN OVER

Northwestern

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-125 Over -105 Under)

I was getting worried that I wasn't going to find any Big 10 team season plays that I liked -- well, worry no more, self, because one has been found. NW did have 3 big wins against pretty good teams last year; PSU, WIS and ND. I think part of that, though, came in the timing. They beat PSU and WIS early in conference play, two teams who were both struggling mightily with components of their offense, PSU the run and WIS the pass. PSU never did improve their run game, and consequently continued to lose more games as favorites. WIS did end up having some good passing games, turning their MELGOR lead offense into one of the most dangerous in football. NW edged ND in a wooly high-scoring game later in the season, round about when ND had defensive injuries that kept pretty much every opponent they played in the game. Other than those 3 wins, NW only beat PUR in FBS games.

They already had one of the worst Big 10 offenses last year, and now NW will be starting a new QB with a shuffled line. I don't see any reason to think this offense will improve more than their conference counterparts. NW was fair on defense last year, but still below average by conference standards. I think 6 wins is a best case scenario for NW this year. 7 wins would mean not being upset by any lesser foes, beating all the similar strength foes, and stealing a game from a superior foe like MINN, MICH, STAN, NEB, PSU or WIS. MINN at home will be their best shot, but I'm going to bet against the best case scenario even coming close to happening. NW with 5 wins this season.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: NW UNDER 6 WINS

Ohio State

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 11.5 (-125 Over -115 Under)

So the betting line is whether or not OSU loses a single game this year? Yes, and rightfully so. I'm not going to lay -125 on perfection. Pass.

Penn State

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-145 Over +115 Under)

The Nittany Lions will certainly have figured out some of the offensive woes that plagued them until a Bowl Game victory over BC last year. The recipe for disaster was there, and it was cooked long past burnt. A little older now, maybe they can claw their way back to making QB Hackenberg look like the 5 star recruit he was. The defense was of course, phenomenal, a top 10 unit.

I like a floor of 8 wins for PSU this year, with a strong chance for 9 to 10. That means that PSU can withstand an upset and still push the Over play. While PSU certainly showed the propensity for being upset last year, if health holds, I don't think it will be an issue this year.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: PSU OVER 8 WINS

Purdue

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-130 Over +100 Under)

Purdue has some things going for it this year -- it's the third year for HC Hazell, they played decently last year before injuries set in, and they return their entire offensive line. On the down side, they do lose two very good RBs. But the success of running backs is frequently down to the O-line, so there's still room for optimism in the running game. Both QBs were pretty awful last year, but they played a pretty murderously tough schedule of Big 10 defenses. Things can get better in the passing game this year, they almost certainly will. Overall there just seems to be more room for potential than backsliding this year. I like the Boilermakers to get wins vs IND St. and BGSU at home in the first month, and then win very close games against ILL, @NW and IND in the final month. Don't be surprised if they pull off an upset of VT or MINN at home, either. @Iowa is a winnable game, as well. There's a bit slimmer value than usual on this play, but I'm going to make it anyway.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: PSU OVER 4 WINS

Rutgers

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (+100 Over -130 Under)

Rutgers hits the QB reset button after Nova had a very good season last year. That instantly puts any offensive success for Rutgers in limbo this year. Limbo is not a good place to be for your better unit, as the defense has slipped beyond it's glory years, though not too far below Big 10 averages. That means, though, that both sides of the ball could be below Big 10 averages. I'd say Rutgers has a floor of 4 wins, but a ceiling of only 6 games. This number is not to be messed with. Pass.

Wisconsin

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (-105 Over -125 Under)

It's hard to not look at the Badgers schedule and see a floor of 9 wins this season. An opening week loss at Alabama is likely, but after that, there's a chance that they win out. @NEB and @MINN are the only non-double digit wins I project for WIS. But will Stave and the passing game continue to show improvement? Will losing Melvin Gordon seriously affect the run game? I'm fairly optimistic on both counts, but there's little room for error with the Over when you've only two losses to work with. Still, with reasonable juice on the play, a defense that could be even better than last year, and a schedule filled with potential blow outs, I'm going to make another slim value play. Wisconsin hasn't been a very good road team, let's hope a split at worst in those two tougher games is good enough to get the 10 wins we need.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: WIS OVER 9.5 WINS

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