2015 College Football Big 12 Team Season Wins Analysis

The Sports Cruncher's 2015 Big12 Team Wins Analysis

Baylor

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 10 (-130 Over +100 Under)

Big things are expected of the Baylor Bears again this season. Here are some reasons they might not win the Big 12: a new QB. QB, however, hasn't been a position problem for Baylor in many years now, so expect a pretty good season from Seth Russell. TSC rankings only had Baylor at #17 last year -- oh wait, those are my rankings, I better explain, lol. It's pretty simple, really, while Baylor had a fantastically fast, balanced offense, and an even better run defense (surprising stat of the day?), their pass defense was second worst in the Big 12. Or maybe this will the surprising stat of the day -- I have the Big 12 as a better passing conference than the PAC 12 last year. Even the perennial doghouse teams like Kansas and Iowa State were near average in the FBS last year, as was Texas. All of the 7 other teams, though, I had ranked 40th or better in pass offense. That being said, issues and injuries kept the Oklahoma schools from matching their Texas' conference mates, though. WVU had the #8 pass offense, but it's running game was not top 25, a fate even more imbalanced for the great passing attack that KSU had last year. It was one thing or another that really kept the Big12 from really having a dominating year as a conference. Only TCU and BAY stayed strong 'til the end, with TCU having an impressive Bowl blowout of an injured Ole Miss team, while BAY coughed up a late lead to MSU -- a game in which both secondaries were exposed as defensive weaknesses. Anyway, this has turned into a bit of a Big12 recap, let's get back to Baylor...

Last year's defensive weakness in the secondary should be better with more experience and depth coming in. They get a ton of players back to from their good defensive line and LB corps. Suffice it to say, I can see why there's optimism for BAY to win the conference this year. Their defensive gains should outpace any drop off they have in QB play, and will have a great running game anyway. I do think that overall they benefitted at catching a lot of teams at the right time last year, they might not be as lucky this year. They will most likely be undefeated through October. Almost all the good games in the Big 12 are in the final 5 weeks of the season -- BAY plays @KSU, OKLA, @OKST, @TCU and TEX in their final 5. That's pretty tough, even as a superior team. I think KSU will regress more than I project (which would agree with the consensus I see) and OKLA may not be quite as strong as I project, either. That being said, I think BAY loses one of those two games, plus @TCU. So even though my actual numbers lean Under, I think the true number for BAY should indeed be at 10 games. Pass.

Iowa State University

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 3 (-135 Over +105 Under)

The Cyclones had a respectable offense last year, staying within 10 rankings of OKST and TEX, even if they were still 2ne worst in the Big 12. Injuries ravaged their defense, though, which also finished 2nd worst, but much further below the 3rd worst Big 12 defense, TTU. It was all down to their rush defense, or lack thereof. Against the pass they were actually pretty near the middle of Big 12 averages. Their secondary should be decent again, they just need to hope for better health and results up front.

With any luck, ISU could field a team that once again pulls off an upset this year. A betting line of 3 is of course not very optimistic for much of an ISU bounce back, and my numbers reflect that as well. They will have to play better than expected and better than last year to get 3 wins in their first 4 games. It's possible. After that, though, Madre de Dios, wins are gonna' be hard to come by. OKST is the most winnable, though OKST is getting a lot of hype for bouncing back strong this year. I mean, 3 games, really, really looks like the ceiling. I'm not going to lay -130 that ISU pulls off two upsets this year. They'll be favored against Northern Iowa and Kansas, that's probably it. Pass.

Kansas State University

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-125 Over -105 Under)

No team in college football may be more hard hit from losing their QB and top receiver than the Wildcats this year. Passing was really all the Wildcats could do last year, and they did it very, very well. It's not just Waters to Lockett (106 catches) that is lost, 2nd leading WR Sexton is gone as well (79 catches). After those two the next leading receiver for the team had just 20 catches. That is just a hell of a lot of offense to suddenly be accounted for. All of my game projections for KSU this year have a -9.2% deduction to their pass numbers from last year. That seems hefty...yet might not be enough.

It will be a medium rebuilding year for the team defensively, so expect the usual, pretty good results. Kickers are back and special teams should continue to be a strength.

KSU, undefeated on the road in 2015...it could happen! With the only toughies being @OKST, @TTU and @TEX, you never know (if the passing game only regresses in the 10% range I mentioned above). If things are drastically worse, though, suddenly they'll be lucky to win one of those games, and then they'd be facing losses vs. TCU, OKLA, BAY and WVU.

With so much up in the air (and not going well in the air, most likely) I have to dampen my enthusiasm for KSU and pass on the Over. I'll lean it, though, lean Over. After all, there will be bodies of some sort running the offensive plays this year, and I'm assuming they'll have practiced, and that the best coach in college football history gets as much out of them as possible.

Kansas

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 1.5 (-160 Over +130 Under)

If you're from Kansas, I'm sorry, and it has nothing to do with the football, lol. Brownbackistan Westboroland is Just. The. Worst.

As for the football, anything the Jayhawks were decent at last year have question marks this year. Ok passing game? Injured QB in the spring. Ok pass defense? Turnover at linebackers and the secondary. Good punter and punt returner? Gone. This is shaping up to be a long, long season, Jayhawks.

KU is given a generous 100% chance of winning the opener against South Dakota State (as it's the default versus FCS schools in my computer), the reality is probably closer to 50%, which knocks the ML projection down to 1.8 games won. That's pretty much right in line with the betting line & juice. Pass.

Oklahoma

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-130 Over +100 Under)

I'm showing 80 cents of value on the Over here, let's take a look...

...back in time, to 2014, when Oklahoma had promising season completely come off the rails after botching what should have been a win @ KSU. To be fair, they came back and crushed ISU the next week, and Kansas a few weeks after that, but they also ended up with hugely embarrassing losses to Baylor and Clemson, as well as a gut-wrenching home loss to OKST. That final week loss just completely deflated them, judging by their Bowl performance against Clemson.

So that's the bad -- the good is that OKLA still just looks really damn good on paper. They return almost all of their skill on offense, plus QB transfer Mayfield. The problem last year for the offense was that the passing game faltered down the stretch. Yes, the game against Kansas was played in a monsoon, which led to only completing 3 of 13 passes, but it did boost the running numbers of a Mr. Perine rather well, you might say.

This year, though, with new coordinators, OKLA is moving to an air raid offense which will probably feature Mayfield (unless there's an update I'm not aware of). That would mean quite a bit less running the ball then OKLA did last year, and they were so much better at running than passing. So while 2015 should be an interesting and exciting year for the Sooner offense, I just don't know how predictable it will be across a season of games, especially with a rebuild on the offensive line.

Defensively OKLA was better against the run than pass, and that's usually a better recipe for winning, but maybe not so much in the Big 12, where passing games have exceeded the running in recent years. The defense could regress this year, especially against the run. It's hard to see them improving overall from last year's solid results. You don't have to fall far as a 20th ranked defense in the Big 12 to suddenly be in the bottom half of defensive squads for the conference.

Looking at that Over, I can see OKLA losing one game prior to week #11, two max. Then, in spite of my spreadsheet's rosy predictions for wins @ BAY (a supremely tough place to win), vs TCU and @ OKST, I think OKLA drops another. I think the worst case scenario is the two early/mid season losses, and two late losses. The medium scenario is the 9 wins, the pretty good scenario 10 wins, and best case scenario an undefeated regular season and trip into the playoffs. Yup, you heard it here first! (I'm guessing, lol).

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: OKLA OVER 8.5 WINS

Oklahoma State

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-175 Over +145 Under)

Rebuilding last year OKST was vulnerable and if it could go wrong it mostly did once the meat of the season hit. Still they showed gumption at the end finishing with upsets of OKLA and WASH. With QB Rudolph taking over in those games, OKST ended with optimism for 2015 (and beyond). The problem is that they still have no running game until proven otherwise. Certainly they will improve this year. Their offensive line is a year older and are still all juniors or younger.

Defensively, the Pokes need to replace the defensive tackles and that's really their only concern. Still, the run defense was their better defense last year, if the run defense slips this year they run the risk of being defensively mediocre any which way you choose to attack them. But hey, that secondary was super young last year, and injured to boot. I do not doubt they'll jump back to being at least an average secondary by Big 12 standards.

So OKST is looking at some ifs just to get back to league average in half their match ups. To me that means uncertainty. Uncertainty in the Big 12 can mean 6 losses faster than you can say "boo!" That's exactly what was about to happen to them last year until pulling out the miracle at Norman. And this year's schedule is really much tougher than last year's. It's a do-or-die schedule in the extreme. They get all the superior teams at home, and the equal(ish) competition on the road. It's the kind of schedule you really like when you're one of the best teams in the league -- not so much in a rebound year as an average team. Maybe you'd prefer to not call them Big 12 average. I'm willing to bet that they are. Looking at their schedule, it's going to take no slip-ups in games they should win to set the floor at 5 games. I don't project them to win any but those 5 games, even with regression working in their favor. They'll need wins @TTU and vs KSU to get to 7 wins, and then either @TEX or @WVU to get to 8. Having their lone conference win at home be against Kansas wouldn't surprise me in the least. The ball is in your court, Gundy and Company, just please don't prove me wrong, lol.

Adding for 1/2 Unit: OKST Under 7.5 wins

Texas Christian University

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 10 (-135 Over +115 Under)

The offense, certainly, returns the bulk and should be good. While stout against the run, TCU was vulnerable to the pass as times, a la Baylor, though better than the Bears. TCU had a couple of amazing linebackers last year that were the glue of their defense, and now they are gone. Defensive regression is a definite possibility for the squad this year. Special teams will continue to be strong.

Right off the bat I'm showing my true line on the Under 10 to be -160, so there's some value there. The problem for me is that TCU has a pretty high ceiling with their schedule, with 11 wins in my raw projections. That tempers the raw ML value just a little bit. With KSU being probably not as good as my projections this year, I can see TCU racing out to 10-0 start this season. But getting back to the raw ML projections, the floor in those first 10 games is really only 6 games, 8 wins not unrealistic, and 9 wins with a loss almost certain just due to the law of averages facing the medium strength Big 12 teams. Even with a perfect 10-0 run they could lose @OKLA and vs. BAY to push the Under. Hmm.

Shoot, let's call it a LEAN UNDER for now. While the defense will probably not be as good, the offense could make up for it. Boykin had his better games at QB in the second half of the season. If that maturity continues, the TCU offense will be a holy terror. Pass.

Texas

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6 (-185 Over +160 Under)

I reckon most of the pacifists in Texas live in Austin, which unfortunately also extends to the Longhorns' offense. Their passing game again looks to be one of the worst in the Big12. The run game last year honestly wasn't much better, but the offensive line should be healthier and better this year. Texas has to do better on first and second downs as 3rd and Longhorns was a recipe for disaster last year.

On the bright side, Texas had and will almost certainly have again the best pass defense in the Big 12, a tool more useful in their conference than in some others. Their rush defense, though, was nothing special, and not as good as any of the top teams in the Big 12. That's a problem when you're trailing in a game and unable to get the ball back. Texas' defense was amazing to start games but faded late.

I see Texas' win floor at 6 games -- does that make it a free roll on the Over? Not quite. First of all, there's the -185 juice, which sets the effect line at 6.85 wins. There's still some value, but I think my current projection of Texas hanging tough with ND in week #1 is probably a bit optimistic with ND's stats fouled by defensive injuries last year. The same goes for the game against OKST. I think that easily shaves a half game off of the ML projection, bringing it down to 7.2. But KSU is projected to slip more than usual, which adds .33 back, or so. At 7.5 it's an ok play. The good thing for the Over is that Texas can push the number with home wins alone vs. RICE, CAL, OKST, KSU, KU and TTU. Even if they slip up and lose one, they'll get it back @ISU. Can they pull an upset @ND, @TCU, vs OKLA, @WVU or @BAY? They should win one of these. Man, this is a close call, I think if you can find the juice at -160 on the Over, it would be a solid play. As is, it's a pass. LEAN OVER. Now watch Texas go out and win 8 games this year, lol.

Texas Tech University

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-120 Over +100 Under)

TTU, with just even luck in the turnovers and injury departments, will be better this year. I'm not going to go into too many details, though, because their schedule makes things pretty cut and dried. Wins vs Sam Houston, UTEP, ISU and KU should be an automatic 4 wins. I think they'll beat OKST at home, as well. If the line were at 5 games I'd jump the Over in a heart beat. However, to get over that half game hump into Bowl eligibility and a winning Over play, they'll have to win one of these games: @ARK, TCU, @OKLA, @WVU, KSU, or @TEX. WVU and KSU are a couple of real wild cards in the Big 12 this year. Last year they were a threat to beat the top teams in the conference, this year they both lose so much of their offense that the threat level will probably be downgraded from red to orange. And will OKST truly be upgraded from green to orange and possibly beyond? These are the things I've been wrangling with in all of these win projections for the Big 12, and here I am at near the last team, lol.

The Red Raiders, though, have the ability to move and score on any defense in the Big 12, and that won't change this year. Their defense was so injured and horrible last year that it's near automatic they'll improve to a certain degree. New DC Gibbs will gamble and either force a turnover of the ball or downs...or potentially long plays and scores. That's not a bad way to play defense when you've got an offense that you want on the field as much as possible wearing down the opponent's defense.

Well, I think I've just about reasoned my way into an Over play, here. I'm going to hope like hell that TTU pulls off an upset at home against TCU or BAY in weeks #4 or #5. I don't think it's as outlandish as it seems. They'll just have to outscore one of those teams in a very high scoring game, lol. While the floor for TTU is the 5 games I mentioned (with the bomb shelter set at 4 wins), 9 wins is not out of the question if the offense is still good and the defense serves it's purpose in not staying on the field for long with at least a decent rate of success. Okay, maybe I did go into a few details, lol.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: TTU OVER 5.5

West Virginia

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (+110 Over -130 Under)

QB Trickett had his bell rung one too many times last year and tapped out of the football ring for good. WVU's passing game was very good while Trickett was healthy, and a little below average when he wasn't or when his replacement Howard played later in the season. One of the best receivers in college football last year, Kevin White, is also gone, as well as receiver #2 Alford. The Mountaineer run wasn't great last year, but they did face a pretty tough schedule, and returns its key pieces, including most of the offensive line. Any time a team starts a season with unknown quantities at QB and receiver it is, of course, hard to predict their success. I think WVU's offense will be okay, this year, not great, not terrible. What a prediction! I really went out on a limb on that one, lol.

Looking at the broad spectrum of where defenses will be in the Big 12 this year, the ponies are lining up for the Mountaineers' defense to ascend to the top of the Big hill. It really could happen. TCU lost the heart of their d. at linebackers, KSU has some rebuilding to do...Texas -- well, if either of these two teams, WVU or TEX, can improve and distance themselves from the other team in run defense, they'll have a shot at being the best Big 12 defense.

Looking at the win total of 7.5 games, I have about 50 cents of value compared to my line of 7.9 wins. WVU has a pretty solid floor of 6 wins. I think they'll beat TTU at home to get to 7, and then TEX at home to get to 8. So best case scenario, they get Over 7.5 wins without having to beat one of the top teams in the conference. With the "?" on offense, though, it's probably safe to put loss in back in the mix, dropping them to 7. After that, though it's going to take a win @OKLA, @BAY, @TCU or @KSU to get back in the Over win column. I just don't think it's worth betting on that happening. Pass.

#Big12 #2015TeamWins