2015 College Football PAC 12 Team Season Wins Analysis
The Sports Cruncher's 2015 PAC12 Team Wins Analysis For some reason I grade out the PAC 12 a lot weaker than other raters n' rankers. Is it because they don't play outside of the West that frequently, not creating enough seeded games with the other power conferences? That's my best guess. While others seem to peg the PAC 12 as the 2nd toughest conference, my average team ranking had them as the lowest of the power 5. Odd. Maybe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Looking at last season's Bowl games, we saw Oregon beat an over-rated FSU and get whomped by OSU. My computer model predicted an OSU win, and the exact 42 points that they ended up scoring. Outside of Oregon's split, the PAC went 5-2 in the Bowls. That's a good winning record, but I don't the PAC faced very tough opponent's overall. Utah demolishing CSU was the most impressive PAC win, but CSU had lost their head coach and the focus just didn't seem to be there. Still, a hefty blow out. Arizona State survived Duke, as big of an over-achieving team as any in FBS. Duke is not good, folks. USC edged out Nebraska. I did have Nebraska ranked substantially higher than USC last year (15th to 41st), and those ranking do feel over and under placed, respectively. Stanford easily handled Maryland, as they should have. Arizona was rather easily beaten by Boise State, King of the Mid Majors. Arizona, I felt, was the most over-rated of the PAC teams last year, and the Bowl game matched my predictions. UCLA beat KSU by 5, as UCLA's run game was just too strong and KSU QB Jake Waters couldn't quite do it all by himself. UCLA I had in my top 25 most of the year, along with KSU. Finally, Washington was rolled by OK State, a team who had been a Big 12 doormat most of the year because of injuries and zero running game. I think the PAC 12 was favored in every one of those Bowl games. Going 6-3 when favored every time isn't great. This season the PAC 12 in it's entirety has 8 games against other Big 5 schools, plus two with Notre Dame. It will be interesting to see how the PAC 12 fares against the other big conferences this year. I'm passing on the TA&M vs ASU game, but I'll definitely be taking MICH @ Utah in week #1. I haven't seen a line for ORE & MSU, but I favor MSU to win a close on there. Arizona Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-140 Over +110 Under) The young guns return for the Wildcat's O, but the line rebuilds again. Inconsistency was the price of their youth, so there's reason for offensive optimism this year and in 2016. I see a win floor of pretty damn near 7 games for ARIZ, but even if the floor works out perfectly the 8th win will be hard to come by. The games @WASH and vs ASU will determine if ARIZ has even an outside chance of winning the South again. Pass. Arizona State Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-140 Over +110 Under) Arizona State should be a better team than they were last year...and probably end up with a worse record to show for it. By playing two of their superior conference teams at home (ORE and USC, with one game against a superior UCLA on the road) and weaker conference teams on the road the door is wide open to a big range of results for ASU this year. That the line is set at 7.5 wins tells you that. My projections square up with that, making it a pass on the Sun Devils. University of California Berkeley Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (+105 Over -135 Under) Time will tell if this year is a repeat of last year for the Bears -- good offense and horrific pass defense. The defense should make some gains. Wins will be hard to come by, though, as their out of conference games after Grambling are against SDSU and TEX. SDSU will be a dangerous team this year, an upset is definitely a possibility. Anything on their schedule that isn't UCLA, USC, ORE or STAN is winnable, though. I think they've got a good shot of going into SLC and beating Utah (I'm really down on Utah this year). Still, no value at 5.5 wins, it's a pass.
Colorado Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (+115 Over -145 Under) The Buffs are another young and improving team that will find themselves less deep and athletic than the majority of the PAC 12, but teams will start to finding them to be less of the automatic win that they used to be. COLO can close to pulling numerous upsets last year, but couldn't seal the deal late in games. Their rush defense was atrocious last year, while their pass defense was decent -- a near mirror image of CAL's defense rankings but flipped in reverse. I think COLO might be a little better than my projections right now. A win against in state rival CSU wouldn't surprise me (though I project a CSU win right now, that could quickly change in the first two weeks), and COLO could end up playing well enough to steal games at ORST and WSU. Beyond that it's murderer's row and the realm of BIG upset. So 6 wins is the ceiling, and 3 or 4 wins the floor. Given the juice on the Under and COLO's upside this year, it's a pass on a season play. Oregon Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (-125 Over -105 Under) I think Oregon loses in week #2 at MSU, which would only give them one more loss to work with on the Over. I do think they'll cruise through most of their conference play, but from week #7 on they play @WASH, @ASU, vs CAL, @STAN, vs USC and a final home freebie against ORST. There's a solid chance the lose one of those, I'm thinking @ STAN will be their most dangerous game. I lean Over here, but the Duck defense could be a problem for them this year. Pass. Oregon State Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4 (-105 Over -125 Under) ORST got a surprise upgrade in its coaching staff, but they inherit a squad many pieces short of a puzzle solid enough to win in the PAC 12. A freshman quarterback will have to play, whoever they go with. At least they get some returners on offense. Defensively, though, they're looking at mass turnover. The juice leans the Under, as do I. Looking at their schedule, 4 games looks like a free roll on the Under. If they beat Weber St., SJSU, and COLO at home (no gimmie, there, am I right?), their next best chances for a win come @WSU and CAL. I don't see either of those teams with as much of a chance of slipping back even further after mediocre/bad seasons as ORST does. HC Anderson is building for the future, going with freshman and not transfers, for the most part. It may be wise to bet against a rebuilding year. ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: ORST UNDER 4 WINS Stanford Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-160 Over +130 Under) STAN returns most of an offensive that improved as the season went along last year -- especially the passing game (with the exception of one humongous egg laid against Utah). Stanford is facing a defensive rebuild up front and in the secondary. STAN does have some question marks and concerns, then, but they've got a favorable schedule, with only one tough road game @USC. UCLA, ORE and ND will be the only other challenges on their schedule, and they get them at home. It makes sense that the juice is heavy on the Over 8.5 wins, as they'll have to lose their only four tough games (as long as they win the others) for it to lose. At -120 I'd take the juice, but it's a pass at -160. LEAN OVER
UCLA Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (+110 Over -140 Under) The Bruins look to be awesomely solid everywhere but QB this season. That's potentially troubling, as I rated UCLA's pass offense to be even better than their rush offense last year (both top 25 units, though). If 5 star blue chipper Rosen isn't starting in week #1, it will be a distraction as to when he eventually takes over. Still, the running game should be so good this year. Defensively UCLA was a bit soft against the run last year, with no guarantee that they'll be significantly better this year. Still, with Stanford being the only real defense in the PAC 12, UCLA's unit was still my 2nd rated best in the conference last year. Looking at UCLA's schedule, they'll probably have one loss (@STAN) heading into the final 2 weeks @UTAH and @USC. I think they handle a Utah squad that played over their heads in several upsets last year, but then fall to USC. I really do see the floor as 10 wins, as long as their QB play is average. I think it's a free roll on 9 with the + juice. It would take one of the Arizona teams beating UCLA for the Over to lose, I think, and UCLA gets the better of the two, ASU, at home. ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: UCLA OVER 9 WINS USC Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (-140 Over +110 Under) The Trojans get the same number of 9 as the Bruins, but with the juice reversed, reflecting more optimism on the USC squad this year. They sure as hell have the QB advantage, with Kessler a Heisman candidate. Last year, though, the Trojans didn't even enjoy a passing game supremacy against the Bruins. Hundley and Co. put up far better numbers in a total beat down of USC. USC can improve this year. They were young and are finally getting experience across their two deep. That could easily transform them into one of the top PAC 12 teams this year, which they weren't, last year. Their defense wasn't far behind UCLA's, ranking 3rd best, just ahead of Oregon, ASU, Utah and WASH, respectively. It's that potential that has the Trojans as a strong "sleeper" pick this year. They have 3 losable road games this year, @ASU, @ND and @ORE. I think they'll win one of those. On top of that they've got two tough home games against STAN and UCLA. In comparison to UCLA, I think USC has a higher ceiling, at 11 raw projected wins...but I also have them with a less secure floor with 8.9 ML projected wins. All told, it's a pass. Utah Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7.5 (-120 Over -110 Under) According to my numbers Utah is a pretty over-rated team. They somehow managed to pull off numerous upsets against better teams in the PAC 12 last year. They don't do anything particularly well, except for kicking the ball. Useful...but. If they're not as lucky as last year and their defense drops off at all under their "new" (72 years old pulled from retirement, I believe), DC, Utah will be a middle of the pack PAC team -- at best. The Arizonas are the upper middle of the PAC teams, Utah is lower middle. Don't be surprised to see CAL upset them on their own turf this year -- callin' it now! lol. This is one of my favorite season totals this year. ADDING FOR 1 UNIT: UTAH UNDER 7.5 WINS
University of Washington Current line for season wins: 5dimes 4.5 (-160 Over +130 Under) HC Peterson faces a 2nd new start, for all intents and purposes, so the going figures to be a hard pull for the Huskies this year. Scraping by weaker teams worked for a while last year, but the season ended with a dud thud against OKST in the Bowl. Now WASH has to go with inexperience at QB and they're rebuilding both lines. 4.5 games is pretty low, and WASH is favored in 3 of their first 4 games. Home games against ARIZ, Utah, and WSU are opportunities for wins late in the season, as is a trip to Corvallis @ORST. That makes the Over look appealing, and my projections suggest a return to Bowl eligibility, but with so much of a reset we don't really know how low the floor is for WASH this year. While the ceiling could be 7 games, the floor could, potentially, dip as low as 3 or 4 wins. Maybe at even juice we'd take a flier, but -160 is too much to mess with. Pass. Washington State University Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5 (+115 Over -145 Under) In contrast to their cross state rivals, WSU returns pretty much everyone in the trenches. The Cougars are relatively young at the skill positions, though, but they do have some experience. QB Falk looks to have as much upside as Holladay did. But man, does WSU have a pretty tough schedule. It's always gonna' be hard when you're not in the better half of the PAC 12 teams. I see the Cougars with a ceiling of 6 or 7 wins, and that's if they play up to potential and pull some upsets as well. My numbers are dead on with the betting line, but I'm going to go with a slightly positive take on my numbers and say that the 4.5 projected wins gets rounded up to 5. Either way it's a pass on a season wager, but hey, lol. Pass.