2015 College Football SEC Team Season Wins Analysis

The Sports Cruncher's 2015 SEC Team Wins Analysis

The SEC is the strongest conference, get over it.

Alabama

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9.5 (-155 Over +135 Under)

At the conclusion of the regular season last year I had Alabama as my #1 team. In the playoff game they were basically one Ezekiel Elliott 85 yard touchdown run away from playing OSU to a statistical standstill. Win that game and they, like OSU, are probably going to beat Oregon. So close, Saban.

Sims to Cooper is gone offensively, and that's a blow. The Tide had my 3rd ranked pass offense last year. Cooper had almost as many catches as the rest of the team combined, which is pretty insane. Looking at things optimistically, though, the ALA receivers did have a pretty similar ypc average to Cooper when the ball was actually thrown their way for a catch. Whether it's Coker or Cornwell who win the starting QB job, he'll be 6'5" with enough meat on his bones to take a few hits. Other than skill at RB it's a rebuilding year offensively for ALA. Like any top recruiting program, though, a "rebuilding" year usually isn't going to be far off in quality from a normal year.

A good chunk of the defense is back, as are the kickers. Until the playoff loss, the ALA defense had only had one poor game of run defense, against TENN in week #9. After that game they buckled down again and were very tough against LSU, MSST, AUB and MIZZ. The 'Bama pass defense, which had so good up through week #12, went pear-shaped in the final two games of the regular season, though they still won those two games. It was a warning shot off the bow, though. The pass defense wasn't bad against OSU, holding the Buckeyes to less than their usual ypp, but neither was it good enough to get enough stops and a win. OSU converted on 10-18 3rd downs, ALA just 2-13. That's your ball game, folks.

So ALA finds itself in the same boat as a lot of SEC teams this year -- new QB, maybe some question marks at WR...with a strong defense.

If ALA doesn't regress too much on offense I see their win floor as 9 games. The only games I have as "losable" for them are @UGA, @MSST and @AUB. All of those teams have an issue or two of their own to deal with -- 'Bama should be perfectly capable of reeling off a perfect regular season. But still, it's the SEC West, where any chink in your armor can lead to a full blown chain mail collapse on any given Saturday. My ML projection for ALA is 10, meaning there's just 45 cents of value on the Over. There are enough safer wagers in the conference this year, in my opinion. Pass.

Arkansas

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-120 Over +100 Under)

We all know that Arkansas was better than their record last year, losing all the close heart-breakers. They closed out the season phenomenally well, totally mauling LSU, Ole Miss and then Texas in the bowl (with just a lone loss on the road to also surging Missouri sandwiched in there). Let's start with their defense -- I rank them as the #1 rush defense last year, and 13th best pass defense, 4th best over all. Though just average through the first 1/3 of the season, the run defense was a revelation after that, giving up 1.7 yards less per carry than opponent's usually gained. Looking at some other metrics and rankings I have for the offensive and defensive units, the Razorbacks pass defense doesn't look nearly as good. In defense of their pass defense, though, they had my 2nd rated hardest schedule of pass offenses faced last year. They only played two teams who averaged less than 7 ypp, NIU and MIZZ. They were inconsistent, though. In the four games with poor pass defense they were very poor, surrendering 3.7 yards more per pass on average than the opponent usually gained. In their six best games (excluding the Bowl) they held opponents to 2.2 yards less per pass than they usually gained (though one of those games came against the reeling Treadwell-less Ole Miss Rebels).

Offensively, ARK is seen as the team with the biggest offensive line in college football, with a slow-paced run heavy attack. All true -- but I still rank it 14th best last year, maybe lower than some might expect. The passing game came in at 37th best. Getting almost everyone back, ARK is in a position to have an even better offense than last year, especially if the new OC can make them a little less predictable.

The ARK defense does have some pieces to replace up front, losing their top tackling DE, DT and MLB. Special teams were a weakness.

Looking at the schedule, I'd set the win floor at 5. The only near certain loss will come @ALA. If ARK continues to play most of it's good ball at home, this season could be a repeat of last year...or worse. Right now I project ARK to win @ TENN and a neutral field game against TA&M. Both of those teams are expected to be better this year, making those games more of a toss up than my lines might indicate.

Even with that high ceiling, the ML win projection is just 7.6. If ARK doesn't improve this year while the other median-SEC teams do, the 5 win floor might be as high as they go, with a bitter Bowl-less Holiday season to enjoy afterward. It's a pass, with a SMALL LEAN UNDER.

Auburn

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-160 Over +140 Under)

I was as high on Auburn's hog as anyway midway through the season last year, ranking them #1 on various weeks, as I recall. And then...the Texas A&M game, where everything that had been threatening to go wrong, plus anything else that possibly could, did. Auburn's defense, which had actually been pretty solid through the first half of the season, had begun to show cracks. They were lulled into a false sense of complacency coming into the A&M game. A&M freshman QB Allen had started his first game the week before against a dreadful UL-Monroe team, and the Aggies barely won that game. The Aggies were looking very, very bad on pretty much all fronts on the heels of the ULM game, with the 59-0 blow out loss to ALA 2 weeks before that.

Auburn actually rebounded with a pretty good defensive game against Georgia, but then had an awful game against Alabama and lost the Bowl to Wisconsin. On the season as a whole, though, they ranked pretty well, especially offensively (#3).

Auburn lost a ton of talent on offense, including QB Nick Marshall. I had Auburn with the #1 pass offense last year. Against 7 of 11 FBS teams they passed for more than 10 yards per pass last year. That's phenomenal, especially when those 7 teams are ARK, LT, LSU, SCAR, MISS, TA&M and ALA! That's a sentence that could easily be punctuated with 7 exclamation points.

In spite of those losses, there's still a fair amount of hype for Auburn this year. Junior QB J. Johnson is not a dual-threat QB like Marshall was (and Marshall was a better runner than MSST QB Prescott), but he's considered to have a better arm. For the top recruiting teams in the nation like Auburn, turnover generally isn't such a scary thing. There plenty of 4 star and blue chip players waiting in the wings to get their chance to prove that they are just as good, if not better, than the players they are replacing. For Auburn, the combination of high offensive numbers and high recruiting ranks means I project their passing game to slip only a little this year (-3.4%) and their run game even less (-1%). These are formula derived numbers...and I think they might be a little too optimistic. As good as Auburn's offense was last year, it could drop off 10% or more and still be a good offense.

Defensively, the big story for Auburn is the arrival of Will Muschamp as DC. The work that Muschamp did with Florida's defense is sorely needed at Auburn. As always with a new coach or coordinator you wonder how long it will take before you get results. I think there's reason to be optimistic for the Auburn defense this year, though, as they return a lot of players, their high level of recruiting, and now DC Muschamp to craft a better on the field product. I project the Tigers' run and pass defenses to both be about 5% better, which could mean they'd be flirting with a top ten defense this year.

Looking at the schedule, Auburn only has a win floor of 6 games. Probable home wins against MSST and MISS brings it up to 8. Road games @LSU and @ARK I project as very close wins for Auburn, as well as a home game against UGA. The raw projections are quite nice for Auburn, as they have them going undefeated until a final week home loss against Alabama. The ML projection of 8.9 wins, though, is almost right in sync with the betting line, making it a pass on the season play. As last season proved for Auburn, if you're off your game at all against good SEC competition the losses can start to pile up.

Florida

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-125 Over +105 Under)

I have the Gators with the 10th best defense in the FBS last year...which was only good for 6th best in the SEC and a 5-5 record against FBS schools. Defense shouldn't be a problem this year. The offense though will be raw and probably mistake prone, with new coaches across the board and the apparent likelihood of a true freshman starting at QB, behind a brand new offensive line. There's some talent at the skill positions, time will tell if they can put it together. They frustratingly did not last year except for that rare occasion when you really liked Georgia to win by double digits, lol.

Looking at their schedule this year, there are only two games I'm going to count as losses to the ceiling -- @LSU and @UGA. I won't be surprised if they hang within a score of the Tigers at Baton Rouge, though. Home games against Ole Miss and FSU will be tough, but they're more likely to win one of those then lose both, by my projections. Versus TENN, a close win, @ MIZZ a one point steal, and @SCAR not crapping the bed again with a one score victory. That's what I'm projecting right now -- a raw 8-4 and ML 7.4 wins. That's slim value, ultimately, when looking at that -125 price tag on the Over. Pass, with too much uncertainty on the offense.

Georgia

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 9 (-140 Over +120 Under)

It will be an interesting year for Bulldog fans this year. Some things will remain the same -- the #1 ranked rushing team will continue to plow through opposing teams. Chubb, Michel and Douglas are back to run the rock, and the offensive line returns everyone except center Andrews. That's the certain side of the offense. The passing game is far less certain. New OC Schottenheimer is a good fit for the running game, but it's less certain what he'll be able to do with a trio of unproven in Athens (Lambert did start at Virginia for a good chunk of his time there) and a mostly fresh batch of receivers. I'm slightly optimistic -- QB Mason was okay last year, he certainly had a good completion % and TD-INT ratio, but his yards per pass average were pretty much at the league average. It should not be hard to have success passing the ball when you've got the #1 run offense in football.

On the flip side of the line, the certainty comes in the secondary and the pass defense. They had a weak game against SCAR early, but that was it, and they got downright dominating in the later stages of the season. At the same time, though, the run defense faded, including that "how the eff did that happen?" game against FLA. You can guess who I had in that game, grrr. And just like the offense, the certain side returns a lot of its' strength, while the uncertain side does not, as UGA loses the top 3 tacklers from it's line last year.

-140 juice is a bit stiff on the Over, but both my raw and ML projections like UGA to win 10 games this year. Let's look at the schedule and see if a free roll at 9 wins seems likely. Umm, yes. Vs. ULM, @VAN, SCAR, Southern U. There's 4 wins to start the season, about as guaranteed as you can get. And then...Alabama. It should be close, but I've got ALA winning by a field goal. And then, @TENN, MIZZ, FLA, UK. I like UGA to win all of those, with maybe a 50% chance of losing one of them. And then...@AUB. Another close loss. Georgia Southern and @GT to finish the regular season. I'm pretty sure the Bulldogs will have last year's game against GT on their mind (1 game of many where backing GT paid off). Georgia can go undefeated with their schedule while 2 losses is almost the worst case scenario. If for some reason they lose @TENN there's no guarantee they lose the ALA and AUB games anyway. If they lose all 3 they'll just have to get past GT at the end to push the bet. I like those chances.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: UGA OVER 9 WINS

University of Kentucky

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 5.5 (-135 Over +115 Under)

Kentucky staggered to the finish line last season, falling dead just short of Bowl eligibility after a promising start. It's hard to say that they'll do anything but flirt with Bowl eligibility once again this season. They return a lot of players but took a hit on their defensive front.

UK has a pretty solid floor of 3 wins with games against non P5 and FCS teams. I have them as a 4.8 favorite @ VAN in week #11. In weeks #2-#4 they play @SCAR, FLA & MIZZ. The sum of their chances in those games equals one win. I think that's best case scenario. So best case so far has them at 5 wins. Games against AUB, @MSST and @UGA are losses. I'm taking those off the board right now, lol. That leaves having to get a win vs TENN or LOU to hit the Over. The problem is, both of those teams are expected to just as improved, and probably more so, than Kentucky. From my perspective, the Wildcats best case scenario only puts them in a position to have to pull an upset for the Under 5.5 to lose.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: KENTUCKY UNDER 5.5 WINS

LSU

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (+100 Over -120 Under)

With a raw wins projection of 8 and a ML projection of 8.4 I'm not interested in this line. Still, let's take a look a bit at things. LSU was a top 20 team in 3 of the 4 matchup categories, and you can probably guess which of the 4 units didn't qualify -- the passing offense. That remains the question mark this season as well, and it's all down to the QB, as the team has a lot of explosive receivers. QB Jennings was a total dud against the good SEC defenses in the latter half of the season. It's not a lock that he'll start ahead of sophomore Harris this year. If one of the QBs shows marked improvement this year LSU can make a run at the playoff. The running game should be solid, though 1st Team All-SEC LT Collins is gone.

Defensively the Tigers have a new DC for the first time in a long time, which is cause for just a little bit of doubt. Expect the Tigers to be more aggressive going after the QB than they've been in the past, which may or may not work for them. Last year they had my #1 rated pass defense in spite of being pretty poor at pressuring the QB. With the talent the Tigers have on the field, it will take some horrendous scheming for them not to do well, I figure.

Looking at LSU's schedule, the only loss I'd apply to their ceiling comes @ALA. The other 3 raw losses are projected to be very close games: @MSST (+3.3), AUB (+1.8) and @MISS (+1.7). An eleven win season is not out of reach. LSU has a solid win floor of 6 (double digit + win projections). A home win against FLA should make it 7. Another home win in a revenge game against ARK should make it 8. So really, taking LSU on either the Over or Under 8.5 this year comes down to how well you feel the Mississippi schools will do this year. I think Ole Miss drops off a bit more than MSST, but I think they'll both still be pretty good. It's a pass.

Mississippi State

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 7 (-130 Over +110 Under)

7 wins, that's it? You're one of the few SEC teams returning a good QB and a lot of your skill players and you get this kind of disrespect? I guess it depends on if you think the Bulldogs are a team representative of their overall statistics last year, or just the 2nd half of the season when they faded. Even if the truth lies somewhere in between I don't understand the predictions that put MSST at the bottom of the SEC-West this year.

QB Prescott put up good numbers against the slew of top ten SEC defenses he faced last year, which is really impressive given he's a dual threat QB who had 189 rush attempts last year (for a decent 5.0 ypc). Not once last year did MSST have a game where they qualified for a "worst" performance either passing or running. Georgia matched that feat in the weaker SEC-East, while Ole Miss never had a "worst" game passing. And that's it -- no other SEC team avoided a "worst" game passing or running. It will have to be considered a rebuilding year for the offensive line, getting just two starters back, but MSST has a lot of big bodies ready to plug into the line.

MSST had the worst of the good SEC defenses last year (if that makes sense, lol), I ranked them 25th, 10th best in the conference. After them the 11th best defense is a plummet all the way to 63rd best (TA&M).

MSST goes with an old, new DC this year, Diaz. I project MSST to be about the same as they were last year against the pass, but a little weaker against the run. If their offense can give them leads to work with, though, their new more aggressive defense will be able to play to their strengths.

Look, don't read too much into the Bowl loss to GT last year. GT had possibly the best offense in college football last year (yes, they did!), and MSST didn't have much motivation for the game, which shows up more in defensive effort than anything else. I predicted a GT win -- just like I predict a MSST team will once again be a dangerous enough team offensively to flirt with 10 wins. I generally don't like to bet the Over on teams with a QB that is bound to take a lot hits during the season (with inexperience on the bench behind him), but in this case I'm going to have to. Even if MSST were to lose all of the one score or less games I project, they'll still get 7 wins. I think the Over is a free roll.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: MSST OVER 7 WINS

Ole Miss

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8.5 (-115 Over +105 Under)

Like Auburn, Ole Miss had a very promising season slide off the rails late, ending with an embarrassing Bowl blow out loss to TCU. Injuries didn't help, especially the loss of star WR Treadwell. The Ole Miss defense was their calling card (I rank them 2nd overall), but I think their pass defense might be a little over-rated. They started the season off really strong but then had some total clunkers against LSU, AUB, and ARK. They actually did a pretty good job defensively in the Bowl loss, it was the offense that turned in what surely must be one of the worst offensive performances in Bowl history.

Make no mistake, the Bowl loss to TCU was by far the worst passing day Bo Wallace had last year. Post-Treadwell he had a fair day against ARK and a really good day against MSST (thanks to some short runs and/or passes that went for huge gains/scores, from what I remember). It was the running game that Ole Miss could never consistently excel at. Other than that big play game against Ole Miss, they never had any excellent games versus other P-5 schools. Boise St. held them to 2.1 ypc in the season opener.

Wallace is gone, but almost everybody else is back. Their offensive line hasn't been that good, really, but now they're almost all seniors and they've got depth off the bench. Good talent at WR, one explosive RB. If the Rebels can get consistent QB and O-line play they'll be a tough team again.

My ML wins projection is 8.5, right on the betting line, so I'm not even going to take a look at the schedule, lol, it's a pass. If anything, I'd lean Over because Ole Miss should have an improved running game (+5% I project) this year, which should give their new QB some more manageable downs.

Missouri

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (+125 Over -145 Under)

I'm not showing any initial value on this line either. Like TENN are going to be Dobbs and Hurd dependent, MIZZ will be Mauk and Hansbrough dependent for the offense to stay competitive. They'll need that run game to be the meat of the offense, as the Tigers have almost no starting experience at WR and Mauk not being an efficiency type QB to begin with.

The offense wasn't very good last year overall, honestly, they just seemed to be lucky enough to get the plays they needed late to win some close games. The defense was the foundation of their success. Their DC is gone now, as well as many great players up front. The Tigers coaches historically craft excellent defensive lines with average recruiting talent, and this year will test their ability to quickly mold a solid line out of inexperienced pieces. If the d-line can hold down the fort, the linebackers and secondary are rather good and will shine. Still, the run defense was the strength of this team last year.

So both the offense and defense have a questionable unit coming into this season. With HC Pinkel's ability to win with question marks, I'm not going to be the one to shoulder the load of figuring out Missouri ahead of time with a definite prediction. Having my projection the same as the betting number gives me the easiest excuse in the world to pass on a season play for the Tigers.

South Carolina

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 6.5 (-120 Over +100 Under)

The Gamecocks should field a team without such a big gap between their offensive and defensive rankings this year. Last year they were all offense. Spurrier bolstered the defensive front with JUCO transfers, and they return of their players last year, for better or worse. There are no guarantees the offense will match last year's 28th ranking, though. They'll be breaking in a new QB and lost pretty much all of their WR production, outside of the good Pharoh Cooper. The offensive line might regress as well.

To get 7 wins the mostly likely route for the 'Cocks is to win 6 of their 7 home games plus the neutral opener against UNC. The problem is that so many of their games are projected to be fairly close this year, 8 of them being less than 8 point victories for the projected winner. As much as I like the Under here, if SCAR improves dramatically at defense and their offense doesn't drop off too much they could suddenly be looking at a 9 win season. It's not likely, but I'm going to pass on this one. LEAN UNDER.

University of Tennessee

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (-120 Over +100 Under)

Hey UT students -- Being a Volunteer isn't the same thing as giving consent. SMH.

A good defense last year could be even better this year, what with the great recruits they've brought into Knoxville (I'm projecting some minor improvement across the defensive board). Offensively, so much hinges on the health of QB Dobbs and RB Hurd. If the rest of the skill positions develop into reliable threats than the offense will make some good gains this year -- I'm projecting a 10% improvement in the passing game and an 11.5% improvement in the running game. Almost half improvement is due to the Vols high recruit rank -- it may or may not pan out this year, and as I mentioned before, it hinges on the healthy of the key pieces.

Still, even with this upside factored into my lines, I'm not seeing TENN as a prime SEC player yet. I think TENN's floor is 6 games, and a pretty solid one at that, with 5 of those being at home, and the 6th floor piece being @Kentucky. That means TENN could only win one more game for the Under 8 to cash. I have TENN losing enough close games that my ML projection is 7 wins. I'm getting a vibe that they win 8 games, though, with losses against OKLA, UGA, @ALA and ARK, meaning I'll give them a win in the two closest losses I project for them -- @FLA and @MIZZ. Still, it's a pretty strong LEAN UNDER, as the Vols will have to stay healthy and play pretty mistake free for the year for the Under to lose.

Texas A&M

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 8 (+115 Over -135 Under)

Looking at the Aggies success over the past decade, it's pretty obvious to see they peaked with Johnny Manziel at QB. The last two years have seen progressive decline. While QB Allen did have a couple of good games once he took over vs. AUB and WVU, overall his numbers weren't as good as Hill's. Still, with experience and an off-season under his belt, and a good number of weapons returning, the A&M offense has a chance to be pretty good. Their offense line is so/so, and that play up front could be the difference this season.

In the "If you can't beat 'em, have them join you" files, A&M nabbed DC John Chavis in what should be a good move. Chavis has his work cut out for him in trying to mold the SEC's 2nd worst rush defense of last year into a cohesive unit.

I don't see A&M's offense improving that much this year, after all, they were a pretty offense last year even with super dud games against Alabama (the death of Hill) and UL-Monroe (the birth of Allen). They've got a great recruiting rank -- some of that talent and athleticism should be channeled into a better defense this year. But look at that SEC schedule they play. Yeouch. For the Under 8 games to lose, A&M can only have 3 losses max, obviously. They only play 3 true "away" games this year, but with two of those being at Ole Miss and LSU there's a likely 2 losses on the road. So now they can only lose one more game of these -- ASU (neutral field), ARK, MSST, SCAR, and AUB. I project them beating ASU and SCAR, while losing to MSST and AUB. With a floor of 4 wins and a generous ceiling of 9 games (generous because I project them to be double digit+ losers in 5 games), it looks like a no-brainer to take the Under 8 here, and hope that any defensive improvement A&M this year isn't enough to catch up to the many better teams in the SEC this year.

ADDING FOR 1/2 UNIT: TEXAS A&M UNDER 8 WINS

Vanderbilt

Current line for season wins: 5dimes 3.5 (+125 Over -145 Under)

Football life is rough as clearly the worst team in SEC football. Vandy was rather young last year, so many freshman saw significant playing time. They at least have the benefit of a more experienced roster this year, even if now they're just sophomores.

HC Mason had a rude SEC awakening in his first year last season, going winless in conference play. Mason hit the coordinator reset button after the season, so it's more newness for his young squad again.

I do fondly recall backing them as a big home dog against TENN last year, a winner that seemed to be me against the universe on TENN, lol. It was one of those rare games where I disagreed strongly with the market...and came out ahead. I usually don't like to tangle with the market if we have differing opinions.

I'm showing 75 cents of value on the Over 3.5 for VAN, so let's see what the win floor looks like: Hmm, other than Austin Peay I don't have VAN as a very big favorite in any of their projected wins. I have them winning by less than 3 points vs WKU, @MTU and @HOU. 2 out of those 3 plus Austin gives them 3 wins. So if they don't get their best case scenario their next best chances for a win come vs Kentucky and @ SCAR. While it might be hard to pin point their 4th win, I think they get it. VAN might be the only team where my Raw and ML projected wins are the exact same number , in this case 4. Still, with a true floor of only 1 win, I'm going to have to pass. LEAN OVER.