Independent's Day

I haven't posted the season win projections for the 3 remaining independent teams yet, so here they are, in a simplified format. ARMY - current season wins lines: 3.5 (-150 Over, +130 Under) - My line is 4.7 wins, but I wouldn't consider Army a lock to win against Fordham or Bucknell, so I'd manually adjust that line down to around 4.3 or 4.4 wins. It's a pass. BYU - current season wins lines: 7.5 (+125 Over, -145 Under) - My line is 7.5 wins. Enthusiasm for BYU is souring with the loss of top RB Jamaal Williams and many suspensions to start the season. Pass. Notre Dame - current season wins lines: 9 (-135 Over, +115 Under) - My line is 8.3 wins, making 85 cents of value on the Under. I do have a raw win projection of 10 games for the Irish, though. The only raw losses I project for them are a one point home loss to USC, and a 4 point road loss at Stanford. For close wins, I have them beating Texas, GT, @CLEM and BC. Looking at their schedule I see a win floor of 6 games. BC has the potential to see their play drop off more this season than I already project, so I think it's fairly safe as a home game to add another win for ND bringing them up to 7. Georgia Tech is also getting reverse-buzz this year. Both GT and BC lost pretty much the entirety of their offensive lines heading into this season. I have some regression built into my lines, but I'm not going to call for a wholesale gutting of a team's offense because of heavy turnover up front. Anyway, the point is, ND is likely in a position to do a little better than my projected 8.3 wins, but not much, imo. It's a pass, with a LEAN UNDER.