Poinsettia Bowl: Bowling Green vs Georgia Southern

Bowling Green HC Babers is moving on to oranger pastures at Syracuse, and won't be with the team for the Bowl Game. DC Brian Ward will serve as HC for the game. Georgia Southern has the defensive ability to match up with BGSU's running game, but not their passing game. BGSU's passing game cooled off in the final month, though, which has dropped them to 14th best -- still far ahead of GASO's 92nd ranked pass defense. GASO's passing game was a complete bust this year -- of all the teams that ran the triple option or pistol GASO had the worst passing offense of the bunch, while throwing for the fewest yards per game of any team in the FBS. Their 8-4 record obviously came on the back of their potent running game, which I rank 3rd best. They only had the 12th best compensated ypc differential versus opponent averages, but being #1 in rush yards per game brought them up to 3rd. As it is, it's a pretty good match up for BGSU, as they defend the run reasonably well, while being somewhat vulnerable against the pass. GASO's one dimensional attack shouldn't be enough to get the win, but it might get the cover. Still, other than the aforementioned lacklustre final month of pass offfense, BGSU played really well in every other facet down the stretch -- their run offense picked up more than enough slack and other than one down game against Toledo BGSU was pretty much smoking everybody. It should be a fun game, no doubt. I have no idea what happened to GASO in their final game against Georgia State. Given the level of competition it was easily their worst game of the year. As I wrote before, Georgia State really improved down the stretch...but still. As such, in spite of some line value on GASO and the coaching evacuation for BGSU, I still don't trust GASO enough to back them with a play against the BGSU offensive juggernaut. I am, though, banking on the game being lower scoring than the opening projection, and recommended a play on the Under 66. *** GASO HC Fritz just accepted the HC position at Tulane, making both teams HC-less for this game.